Conventional production, oil sands projects underpin strong crude oil forecast
CALGARY, June 5, 2012 /CNW/ – Canadian crude oil production will more
than double to 6.2 million barrels per day by 2030 from three million
barrels per day in 2011, according to CAPP’s 2012 Crude Oil Forecast, Markets and Pipelines Outlook.
“Resurging growth in Western Canadian conventional oil production and
new oil sands investments are driving the positive outlook,” said Greg
Stringham, vice-president, markets and oil sands. “Canadian oil is
clearly on the global stage and this forecast growth will put Canada in
the top three or four oil producers in the world.”
Conventional production is increasing because new technology allows
industry to produce oil from formerly uneconomic resources, reversing a
significant declining production trend over the last decade. Oil sands
growth reflects Canada’s supply potential and growing international
demand for oil.
___________________________________________________________ | 2012 Canadian Crude Oil ProductionForecast (million| | b/d) | |___________________________________________________________| | |2011 Actual|2015|2020|2025| 2030 | |_________________|___________|____|____|____|______________| | Western Canada | | | | | | |_________________|___________|____|____|____|______________| | Conventional| 1.1 |1.3 |1.3 |1.2 | 1.1 | |_________________|___________|____|____|____|______________| | Oil Sands | 1.6 |2.3 |3.1 |4.2 | 5.0 | |_________________|___________|____|____|____|______________| | Eastern Canada | 0.3 |0.2 |0.2 |0.2 | 0.1 | |_________________|___________|____|____|____|______________| | Total Canadian | 3.0 |3.8 |4.7 |5.6 | 6.2 | |_________________|___________|____|____|____|______________|
The 2012 CAPP forecast indicates Canadian crude oil production will rise
from three million barrels per day (mmb/d) in 2011 to 5.6 mmb/d in
2025. This year’s forecast is extended by five years and as a result,
incremental oil sands projects increase the total oil production
forecast to 6.2 mmb/d in 2030, a continuation of the trends highlighted
in last year’s CAPP forecast.
“It’s good news for all Canadians because responsible development of
this secure, reliable energy source creates jobs across Canada,
increased revenue for governments through higher royalty and tax
payments, and additional investment in a wide range of businesses
throughout the country,” Stringham said.
The growing oil supply is aimed at markets in Eastern Canada, which
currently imports more than half its oil from offshore foreign
suppliers, traditional and new markets in the United States (displacing
imports from less secure foreign sources) and growing markets in Asia.
Stronger growth in both conventional oil and oil sands supply means
tighter availability of pipeline capacity in the next few years and an
increased urgency for timely expansions and new capacity to markets.
New pipelines are now under way and other transportation projects,
including pipelines and rail, are proposed to connect the growing oil
supply with consumers.
Timely regulatory decisions on new upstream development and
infrastructure projects will enhance Canada’s international
competitiveness in attracting the investment needed to support this
production growth and realize market opportunities, benefitting all
The full report is available at www.capp.ca/forecast.
The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) represents
companies, large and small, that explore for, develop and produce
natural gas and crude oil throughout Canada. CAPP’s member companies
produce more than 90 per cent of Canada’s natural gas and crude oil.
CAPP’s associate members provide a wide range of services that support
the upstream crude oil and natural gas industry. Together CAPP’s
members and associate members are an important part of a national
industry with revenues of about $100 billion-a-year. CAPP’s mission is
to enhance the economic sustainability of the Canadian upstream
petroleum industry in a safe and environmentally and socially
responsible manner, through constructive engagement and communication
with governments, the public and stakeholders in the communities in
which we operate.
SOURCE Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers