Latvian Paper Worried By Growing Dependence on Russian Gas
Posted on: Saturday, 29 March 2008, 15:00 CDT
Text of report by Latvian newspaper Latvijas Avize on 29 March
[Report by Iveta Tomsone: "Energy System Dragged in Russia's Direction"]
Latvia must cover its energy deficit with the use of renewable energy resources and hard fuel used in a new power plant - that is what the government decided last year. This year, by contrast, a gas- fired power plant is seen as the main way of covering the energy supply deficit. This would increase Latvia's dependency on Russian energy resources even more.
Latvia's activities in the area of energy supplies are causing concern among neighbouring Estonians and Lithuanians, as well as European Union institutions and experts. It was only recently that the EU indicated in various publications that politics in Latvia are too close to business, while business is too close to Russia. It should be added that Estonia plans to deal with its energy issues by modernizing a power plant which uses combustible slate and by establishing a connection to Finland. Lithuania, meanwhile, has started to make more active use of subsidiary oil products to produce energy in advance of the construction of a new nuclear power plant. It is also thinking about establishing a connection between Lithuania and Poland.
Latvia's Situation
In Latvia, the government must decide this year whether to build a gas-fired or solid fuel-fired power plant. The final decision will have much to say about political balance and influence in Latvia.
Once the Ignalina nuclear power plant [in Lithuania] is shut down in 2009 and 2010, Latvia may face an energy famine. The operator of Latvia' power transmission system has said that the maximum consumption in Latvia will grow from 1,474 MW (megawatts) last year to 1,600 MW in 2010. The capacity of power plants that are already on line in Latvia is 2,184 MW, but because most of that capacity comes from hydroelectric power plants on the Daugava River, it is only during four to six weeks of spring flooding that the capacity is really achieved. Other times of the year, there is a deficit of between 200 and 700 MW, and that is covered with imports. That means that each year Latvia imports no less than 30 per cent of its electricity.
Discussions about the provision of energy resources for the production of electricity and heat in Latvia began in 2004, when Latvia joined the EU. One of the first strategic documents was prepared in 2006 - "The Energy Strategy of the Baltic States." In it, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania agreed to link their energy networks with those of Northern and Central Europe, to make wider use of renewable energy resources such as timber, waste, wind, water and the like, as well as to build a new nuclear power plant.
At the same time, the European Commission is drafting a so- called Green Book, which will state that the EU must ensure stable energy deliveries, reduce dependency on monopolies, focus on the production of energy with renewable resources, and reduce carbon dioxide emissions, thus reducing influence on global warming.
The Baltic agreement and the assignments given by the European Commission were successfully included in Latvia in a 2006 document that was called "Fundamental Aspects of Developing the Energy Industry, 2007-2016". This is the document to which he government is making reference when it talks about the delivery of electricity in Latvia. It should be added that the document was signed by the then economics minister, Aigars Stokenbergs, who is now in opposition.
Energy Independence
What energy future is forecast in the document? The main emphasis is on diversifying Latvia's energy market so as to reduce dependency on Russian gas and other types of energy resources. The introduction to the document reviews Latvia's ability to provide for itself with local energy resources. Latvia has increased the use of its own energy resources over the last 10 years from 28 per cent of total power supplies in 1996 to 36 per cent in 2004. There are other opportunities, however, to reduce energy dependency on imports.
The first issue is timber, which can be produced in Latvia at the level of 6 to 11 million cubic meters. This would be enough to produce 44 to 82 petajoules (PJ) of energy. This would mostly be used to produce heat, but when heat is produced in so-called cogeneration plants, electricity can also be produced.
Next there is straw and other subsidiary products from agricultural production. Each year Latvia produces 15-170 tons of straw, which can produce 2.2 PJ of energy. The report adds that subsidiary products from the production of biological fuel can also be used to produce energy.
The document does not speak to the construction of new hydroelectric power plants. The authors believe that the two power plants that are on the Daugava and the 149 small plants that are on other rivers (as of 2004) are enough. They should be modernized, however, to increase capacity by 10 to 20 per cent.
Wind energy is another source of energy in Latvia. The wind generators that are in place in Latvia at this time is 26.9 MW, but the output could be increased by establishing a wind farm out at sea. This has the minus, however, of the fact that wind is not a stable resource for the production of electricity.
The document also speaks to solar energy, which can be used very well from April until September. Incineration of household waste can produce 4.5 PJ of energy. Biological fuel can increase energy independence by 2 PJ per year. The document also speaks to peat moss. The authors believe that 230 million tons of peat moss could be used to produce 2,387 PJ of energy. True, peat moss creates far too much carbon dioxide emission.
Sum of Local Resources
These domestic resources, taken together, could provide Latvia with half (49.3 per cent) of the energy that it needs by 2010. The rest could be produced from fossil fuels. 100 per cent assurance of domestic energy supplies will require cogeneration plants which produce not just heat, but also electricity.
The document states: "The aim of government policy is to strike a balance between demand for electricity and the potential delivery of electricity from Latvia's power plants in 2011 and 2012. In pursuit of this goal, the government will devote maximum effort to promoting the efficient use of energy and the delivery of energy from power plants which use local fuel and renewable energy resources in a highly efficient cogeneration cycle. The remaining delivery supply will be diversified among other types of fossil fuel so as to prevent an excessive reliance on natural gas."
In order to fully ensure Latvia's supply of energy resources, according to the document, one job is to build a power plant with 350 to 400 MW of capacity. It would use coal in combination with renewable energy resources - timber, peat moss and other biological fuels.
The document does not calculate just how man megawatts of power Latvia can produce each year from its own resources (wind, biological fuel, hydroelectricity, cogeneration) or how much would be produced if another solid fuel-fired plant were to be built. Even a non-specialist, however, can read the document and conclude that the missing 700 MW of power can be covered without building a gas- fired power plant.
The document also speaks to the installation of power cable between Latvia and Sweden to guarantee the exchange of energy with the Scandinavian countries. That means that Latvia would sell power to Scandinavia when necessary, and vice versa.
The new Ignalina nuclear power plant is also mentioned, but the authors of energy policy do not rely on it too much. That is a good thing, because plans for the construction of the plant now say that it will be ready no sooner than in 2025.
Energy Dependency
Shortly after the basic document was approved last year, a new idea appeared on the table - the best, cheapest and most environmentally friendly way of providing electricity in Latvia is to build a gas-fired power plant. Russia, you see, can provide us with ongoing gas deliveries, the gas can wonderfully be stored underground and Incukalns, and then it is just an elementary thing to build a gas-fired power plant to turn that gas into electricity. Financing for the project would be given by Latvenergo [the national electricity monopoly], of course, and by the state. The total cost - around half a billion lats [more than 1 billion dollars].
A report filed by the Economics Ministry at the beginning of March says that the best way of avoiding an electricity shortage would be to build a gas-fired power plant by 2014 and a solid fuel- fired power plant after 2015.
True, a review of documents and views on this matter does not make it clear just how much base capacity Latvia will lack in 2012 - 300, 400 or 700 MW. It is also not quite clear whether the previous government plans to improve energy efficiency are taken into account in these calculations.
It has to be said that the plan to build a gas-fired plant was disseminated more and more noisily after the job of economics minister was left by Jurijs Strods from TB/LNNK [For the Fatherland and Freedom/Latvian National Independence Movement] and he was replaced by another member of his party, Kaspars Gerhards.
In public, Gerhards insists that the government so far has only decided to create new base capacity in Latvia. It is not yet known whether it will be covered with gas or solid fuels. A bid for tenders will be announced, and the government will look for the most advantageous project for the state. The rules on the bid for tenders are unknown.
Asked about the previous plans on using renewable resources to enhance Latvia's energy independence, Gerhards says that he is "fully in favour of using these resources," but then he adds that wind power is unstable, it would not be desirable to develop new small hydroelectric power plants, biomass is uncertain and insufficient in supply, and the production of energy from all of these resources is expensive. Perhaps it would not even be all that environmentally friendly. Gerhards believes that energy security can be guaranteed only by stable delivery of energy from stable providers of energy.
The economics minister from TB/LNNK is working on all front lines, as it is said. One day he goes to Jelgava to look at a cogeneration plant. The next he is prepared to talk to the local governments of Liepaja and Ventspils on the construction of a coal- fired plant outside one or the other city. This weekend he is in Sweden to discuss an interconnecting cable.
On the other hand, members of the People's Party have been no less active in debating the energy issue. On 11 March, the government said that a solid fuel-fired power plant is the best way to cover base capacity. A week later, according to the newspaper Diena, the finance minister, Atis Slakteris (People's Party) had changed the government's decision. Where it once said that the government would facilitate the construction of a solid fuel-fired power plant, it now says that it will "evaluate the utility" of doing so. What is more, the part of the decision which speaks to connecting a coal-fired power plant with Sweden has been stricken altogether.
Originally published by Latvijas Avize, Riga, in Latvian 29 Mar 08 pp 1,9.
(c) 2008 BBC Monitoring European. Provided by ProQuest Information and Learning. All rights Reserved.
Source: BBC Monitoring European
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