Zacks Bull and Bear of the Day Highlights: Amphenol Corp., The Corporate Executive Board, Daimler, Starwood Hotels and Merck
Zacks Equity Research highlights Amphenol Corp. (NYSE: APH) as the Bull of the Day and The Corporate Executive Board (Nasdaq: EXBD) as the Bear of the Day. In addition, Zacks Equity Research provides analysis on Daimler AG (NYSE: DAI), Starwood Hotels & Resorts (NYSE: HOT) and Merck & Co. (NYSE: MRK).
Full analysis of all these stocks is available at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2676.
Here is a synopsis of all five stocks:
Bull of the Day: Amphenol Corp. (NYSE: APH)
Amphenol Corp. recently reported record revenues of $863.7 million in the company’s 3rd quarter, exceeding the Street’s consensus of $835 million, on the back of strong growth in the global communications, military and aerospace markets. Currency translations contributed $16 million. Gross margin of 32.6% was roughly flat year-over-year but slightly down from 32.7% in Q2, while operating margin improved to 19.8% from 19.5% a year ago and was flat quarter over quarter. EPS of $0.63 easily beat the consensus of $0.60.
Going forward, management has narrowed the guidance range and reiterated the high end of the fiscal year guidance. Revenues are now expected to come around $3.2-$3.3 billion. EPS is now anticipated to come around $2.36-$2.38. Guidance for the 4th quarter was raised, as well.
We upgrade the stock to a Buy with a target price of $35. Amphenol is experiencing broad-based growth across all its geographical regions with strong sales from the industrial, military/aerospace, mobile consumer products and infrastructure, and IT and data communications end-markets. Amphenol Corp. designs and manufactures connectors and interconnecting systems that are used primarily to conduct electrical and optical signals for a wide range of sophisticated electronic applications.
Bear of the Day: The Corporate Executive Board (Nasdaq: EXBD)
We maintain our Sell rating on shares of The Corporate Executive Board following the release of third-quarter results.
We believe the shares of The Corporate Executive Board are overvalued near current levels, in light of the weak conditions in the current operating environment. Although Q3 results came in ahead of expectations, we have reduced our fourth-quarter 2008 and full-year 2009 EPS estimates as the company’s outlook remains modest, in part due to the fact that EXBD has yet to improve its cross-sell ratio.
Rather, the cross-sell ratio continues to deteriorate, and management has lowered its forward guidance as a result. We have identified several concerns within the company’s current operating statistics, which we have detailed above. Given the current operating pressures, along with ongoing concerns regarding a slowing economy, we believe the shares should trade at a discount to the peer group average.
Our target price of $22.00 per share equates to roughly 10x our 2009 EPS estimate. In light of these issues, we anticipate that the company’s shares will under-perform the market in the near-term.
Latest Posts on the Zacks Analyst Blog:
Daimler AG (NYSE: DAI)
In the third quarter, earnings per share were at $0.27, as compared to a loss of $1.90 in the prior-year quarter. Revenues declined 7% year over year to $30.7 billion. Total units sold in the quarter decreased 3% to 522,500. Mercedes Car Group sales decreased 6% to 315,800 vehicles. The decrease in earnings was primarily due to the abrupt decline in sales in the NAFTA region as well as in the major European markets.
Currently, Daimler AG shares are trading at a P/E multiple of 4.7x our 2008 earnings estimate of $6.39, which is below the industry median of 7.2x. The company’s efficiency improvement measures inspire our optimism about the stock. However, the company is facing many challenges including exchange rate fluctuations, weak auto pricing, rising raw material costs, as well as a slowing U.S. economy.
Starwood Hotels & Resorts (NYSE: HOT)
We continue to believe that Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc.’s well-positioned portfolio will benefit given an increase in demand. However, we currently do not expect an improvement in the operating environment in the near term, and we expect that challenges will persist through 2009. Therefore, we have downgraded our rating on shares from Buy to Hold. Our price target of $20 reflects an enterprise value/EBITDA multiple of 7.0x our 2009 EBITDA estimate.
While the slowing economy has been evident for some time, we had previously expected Starwood to outperform its peers in part due to its concentration in high-end properties, its international exposure, and its relatively limited timeshare business. Although third-quarter results exceeded our expectation, a portion of the upside was due to timing. Also, management’s outlook regarding the fourth quarter and 2009 make clear the fact that the economic factors will hurt Starwood more than we had originally anticipated.
Merck & Co. (NYSE: MRK)
Merck & Co. Inc. reported third-quarter financial results and lowered the high end of previously issued full-year adjusted-EPS guidance. The company’s vaccine business, propelled by Gardasil, and other products such as Januvia for diabetes have been the catalysts for revenue growth. Mega-blockbuster Singulair as well as Gardasil have recently experienced significant flattening in sales but will continue to be huge contributors to Merck’s topline.
Vioxx litigation risk, although not eliminated, is greatly reduced with the 2007 settlement. The patent expiration of Fosamax and the issues surrounding Vytorin and Zetia will slow revenue growth. EPS growth will come from continued cost-cuts. We believe the recent underperformance of key drugs will translate into revenues falling 1% in 2008. We look for EPS of $3.30 for the full-year.
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