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Powdered Milk in China 2008: A Market Analaysis

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This report reviews characteristics, trends and developments over the 2001 to 2007 period in the powdered milk market and industry of the People’s Republic of China, and gives forecasts of market performance to 2012. The emphasis is on the retail market and the major industry players.

The report covers the market for all powdered milk products, including infant formula and plain milk powder.

 KEY REPORT FEATURES  This recently updated report includes: – An overview of China’s total food market with sales statistics up to  2007; – The total value of the powdered milk market, including sector breakdown, up to 2007; – Value provincial and urban/rural breakdown, up to 2007; – Market share analysis of the powdered milk market; – Retail pricing trends for powdered milk products by province up to 2007, and by sector (2008); – Volume & value forecast total powdered milk market in China up to 2012; – Statistical analysis of China’s advertising, marketing and consumer  trends; – Key manufacturer profiles and financials; – Key contacts & trade events; – Overview of China’s demographics and macroeconomics.     INTRODUCTION Report Coverage China’s Retail Statistics: A Cautionary Note The Problems With Chinese Retail Data? What Does All This Mean Practically? Figure A CHINA TOTAL & PER CAPITA RETAIL SALES COMPARED TO OTHER ASIAN COUNTRIES, 2005 Other Access Asia Reports of Possible Interest Glossary Free Weekly Online Newsletter and Editorials 1 CHINA’S POWDERED MILK RETAIL MARKET 1.1 Overview 1.2 China’s Total Food & Beverage Market  1.2.1 Total Food Market: Food & Non-food Sales  Table 1.1 TOTAL CURRENT VALUE RETAIL SALES BY FOOD AND NON-FOOD, 2001-2007 1.2.2 Total Food Market: Food/Non-food Sales Split  Table 1.2 % BREAKDOWN OF SALES BY FOOD AND NON-FOOD, 2001-2007 1.2.3 Total Food Market: Urban and Rural Split  Table 1.3 TOTAL CURRENT VALUE RETAIL SALES BY FOOD & NON-FOOD, 2001-2007 1.2.4 Total Food Market: The Trends  Figure 1.1: Total Volume Growth in Retail Sales of Selected Food Products in China, 2001-2007 Figure 1.2: Per Capita Volume & Growth of Retail Sales of Selected Food  Products in China, 2000/2006 Table 1.4 CURRENT VALUE RETAIL FOOD SALES BY MAJOR PRODUCT CATEGORY,  2001-2007 1.2.5 Total Food Market: Urban Value Trends  Table 1.5 CURRENT VALUE URBAN RETAIL FOOD SALES BY MAJOR PRODUCT CATEGORY,  2001-2007 1.2.6 Total Food Market: Rural Value Trends  Table 1.6 CURRENT VALUE RURAL RETAIL FOOD SALES BY MAJOR PRODUCT CATEGORY, 2001-2007 1.3 Total Powdered Milk Market  1.3.1 Total Powdered Milk Market: Within the Broader Dairy Context  Table 1.7 CHINA’S TOTAL DAIRY AND DRIED MILK VOLUME CONSUMPTION COMPARED, 2001-2007 1.3.2 Total Powdered Milk Market: Apparent Consumption  Table 1.8 DRIED MILK VOLUME PRODUCTION, TRADE AND APPARENT CONSUMPTION, 2001-2007 1.3.3 Total Powdered Milk Market: Retail Market Significance  Table 1.9 DRIED MILK RETAIL MARKET SIGNIFICANCE, 2001-2007 1.3.4 Total Powdered Milk Market: Retail Products  Table 1.10 DRIED MILK AND BABY FORMULA COMPARATIVE RETAIL MARKET  SIGNIFICANCE, 2001-2007 1.3.5 Total Powdered Milk Market: Child Population Trends  Table 1.11 BIRTH RATES AND INFANT POPULATION TRENDS IN CHINA, 2001-2007 1.3.6 Total Powdered Milk Market: Childcare Provision  Table 1.12 DISTRIBUTION OF CHILD CARE CENTER AVAILABILITY, CENTER CARE  USE AND MOTHER’S WORK STATUS, 2002 1.3.7 Total Powdered Milk Market: Working Mothers  Table 1.13 WORKING MOTHERS BY PROVINCE IN CHINA, 2000-2006 1.3.8 Total Powdered Milk Market: Kindergartens  Table 1.14 STATISTICS ON KINDERGARTENS IN CHINA, 2000-2007 1.4 Regional Markets  1.4.1 Regional Markets: Provincial Values  Table 1.15 CURRENT VALUE OF POWDERED MILK & INFANT FORMULA COMBINED RETAIL MARKET BY PROVINCE IN CHINA, 2001-2007 1.4.2 Regional Markets: Provincial Per Capita Spend  Table 1.16 PER CAPITA CURRENT VALUE OF POWDERED MILK & INFANT FORMULA  COMBINED RETAIL MARKET BY PROVINCE IN CHINA, 2001-2007 1.4.3 Regional Markets: Provincial Volumes  Table 1.17 VOLUME OF POWDERED MILK & INFANT FORMULA COMBINED RETAIL MARKET  BY PROVINCE IN CHINA, 2001-2007 1.4.4 Regional Markets: Provincial Per Capita Volume Consumption  Table 1.18 PER CAPITA VOLUME OF POWDERED MILK & INFANT FORMULA COMBINED  RETAIL MARKET BY PROVINCE IN CHINA, 2001-2007 1.5.2 Market Shares: Powdered Milk National Market Shares  Table 1.19 LEADING COMPANY SHARES OF RETAIL POWDERED MILK SALES IN CHINA,  2004-2007 1.6 Prices  1.6.1 Prices: Retail Price Indices  Table 1.20 AVERAGE INCOME ANNUAL GROWTH BY SECTOR, 2004-2007 Table 1.21 RETAIL PRICE INDICES BY BROAD SECTOR, 2000-2007 1.6.2 Prices: Average Unit Values  Table 1.22 AVERAGE UNIT RETAIL PRICES & % ANNUAL GROWTH ON POWDERED MILK & INFANT FORMULA, 2001-2007 1.6.3 Prices: Average Regional Unit Prices  Table 1.23 AVERAGE REGIONAL RETAIL PRICES & % ANNUAL GROWTH ON POWDERED  MILK & INFANT FORMULA, 2001-2007 1.6.4 Prices: Store Check Data  Table 1.24 RETAIL PRICES OF SELECTED INFANT MILK POWDER (0-6 MONTHS), AUGUST 2008 Table 1.25 RETAIL PRICES OF SELECTED INFANT MILK POWDER (ABOVE 6 MONTHS), AUGUST 2008 Table 1.26 RETAIL PRICES OF SELECTED INFANT MILK POWDER (1-3 YEARS),  AUGUST 2008 Table 1.27 RETAIL PRICES OF SELECTED CHILDREN MILK POWDER (ABOVE 3 YEARS), AUGUST 2008 Table 1.28 RETAIL PRICES OF SELECTED MILK POWDER FOR PREGNANT WOMEN,  AUGUST 2008 Table 1.29 RETAIL PRICES OF SELECTED MILK POWDER FOR THE ELDERLY,  AUGUST 2008 Table 1.30 RETAIL PRICES OF SELECTED MILK POWDER FOR THE FAMILY, WOMEN &  STUDENTS, AUGUST 2008 1.7 Outlook  1.7.1 Outlook: Forecast Trends 1.7.2 Outlook: Total Market Size In Value Terms  Table 1.31 FORECAST TOTAL VALUE & VOLUME MARKET FOR POWDERED MILK PRODUCTS  IN CHINA, 2007-2012 1.8 Current Issues  1.8.1 Current Issues: Legislation  Table 1.32 POWER & WATER CONSUMPTION LIMITS 1.8.1 Current Issues: Competing Against Mother’s Milk  Table 1.33 TYPE OF MILK CONSUMED BY INFANTS IN CHINA Table 1.34 REASON FOR NOT BREASTFEEDING Table 1.35 BENEFIT OF BREASTFEEDING Table 1.36 USE OF BREAST MILK SUBSTITUTES DURING HOSPITAL LABOUR & DELIVERY Table 1.37 ACCEPTANCE OF BREAST MILK / INFANT FORMULA MILK POWDER 1.8.2 Current Issues: Violation of the Codes of Marketing of Breast Milk Substitutes  Table 1.38 AWARENESS ABOUT BREAST-MILK SUBSTITUTE RULE, CODE 1.8.2 Current Issues: Substandard Milk Powder Hurting Consumer Confidence Table 1.39 PASSING RATE OF INFANT FORMULA MILK POWDER, 2004-08 1.8.2 Current Issues: Foreign Versus Local Brands 1.8.2 Current Issues: Booming Market Attracts New Players in the Market 1.8.2 Current Issues: New Zealand-China Free Trade Agreement  Table 1.40 TARIFFS ON NEW ZEALAND DAIRY PRODUCTS ENTERING CHINA Table 1.41 HS CODE DESCRIPTION Table 1.42 DAIRY PRODUCT PRICE OUTLOOK, 2006/07 TO 2008/09 1.8.2 Current Issues: Fat Food: Facing an obesity epidemic 1.8.5 Current Issues: Genetically Modified 1.8.7 Current Issues: Organic Farming 2 MARKETING & DISTRIBUTION 2.1 Marketing & Advertising  2.1.1 Marketing & Advertising: Trends  Conventional Media Advertising Table 2.1 ADVERTISING EXPENDITURE IN CHINA, 2004-2007  Online Advertising Table 2.2 ONLINE ADVERTISING EXPENDITURE IN CHINA, 2004-2007 2.1.2 Marketing & Advertising: Leading Advertised Product Categories  Table 2.3 TOP 10 ADVERTISING CATEGORIES IN CHINA, 2007 2.1.3 Marketing & Advertising: Leading Advertised Brands  Table 2.4 TOP 10 ADVERTISING BRANDS IN CHINA, 2007 2.1.4 Marketing & Advertising: Leading Advertisers  Table 2.5 CHINA’S TOP TEN ADVERTISERS, 2004-2006 2.1.5 Marketing & Advertising: The Prime-time Advertising Auction  Table 2.6 PRIME-TIME ADVERTISING AUCTION ON CHINA’S CCTV, 2000-2008 2.1.12 Marketing & Advertising: Advertising Legislation Affecting China’s Milk Power Market 2.1.7 Marketing & Advertising: Brand Preferences Choice Factors in China Age & Location Table 2.7 BRAND PREFERENCES IN TERMS OF AGE GROUPS & LOCATIONS IN CHINA, 2007  Quality Versus Image Table 2.8 FACTORS DETERMINING BRAND CHOICES IN CHINA, 2007  Local Versus Foreign Table 2.9 BRAND PREFERENCES IN CHINA, 2007  “Chameleon” Brands Table 2.10 TOP CHAMELEON BRANDS IN CHINA, 2008 2.1.8 Marketing and Advertising in China: Brand Equity 2.1.9 Marketing & Advertising: Emerging Local Brands  Table 2.11 CHINA’S MOST VALUABLE BRANDS, 2007/2008 2.1.12 Marketing & Advertising: Pricing Issues  Table 2.12 CONSUMERS WHO TRADE UP OR DOWN BY INCOME SEGMENTS, 2007 Table 2.13 CONSUMERS WHO TRADE UP OR DOWN BY CATEGORIES, 2007 2.1.13 Marketing & Advertising: Brand Marketing Strategies 2.1.3 Marketing & Advertising: Olympic Sponsorship a Waste of Money?  Table 2.14 TOP FIVE OLYMPIC SPONSORS & TOP TEN LOCAL COMPANIES ASSOCIATED WITH OLYMPICS, 2008 2.1.16 Marketing & Advertising: Online Sales  Table 2.15 TOP ONLINE SHOPPING TRANSACTION BY REGION, 2007 Table 2.16 TOP REASONS FOR NOT SHOPPING ONLINE, 2007 2.2 Consumers  2.2.1 Consumer Profile: Broad Consumer Trends 2.2.2 Consumer Profile: Development of the Dairy Market  Table 2.17 TARGET MARKETS FOR DAIRY PRODUCERS IN CHINA Table 2.18 TIME OF DAY MOST CONSUMERS EAT DAIRY PRODUCTS IN CHINA 2.2.3 Consumer Profile: Sectoral Consumption Trends  Liquid Milk Yoghurt Ice Cream Powdered & Formula Milk Table 2.19 TOP FACTOR CONSIDERED WHEN CHOOSING A PARTICULAR BRAND OF INFANTFORMULA MILK, 2007 Table 2.20 SOURCES OF INFORMATION ON INFANT FORMULA MILK, 2007 Table 2.21 LEVEL OF UNDERSTANDING OF THE FUNCTIONS OF NUTRITIONAL  INGREDIENTS IN INFANT FORMULA MILK POWDER, 2007 Table 2.22 NUMBER OF INFANT FORMULA MILK POWDER BRANDS USED, 2007 Table 2.23 MOST FREQUENT PLACE TO BUY INFANT FORMULA MILK POWDER, 2007 Table 2.24 MONTHLY EXPENDITURE ON INFANT FORMULA MILK POWDER, 2007 2.3 Wholesale Distribution 2.4 Retail Distribution  Table 2.25 % BREAKDOWN OF DAIRY PRODUCTS SALES BY RETAIL OUTLET TYPE IN  CHINA, 2001-2007 3 SOURCES OF SUPPLY 3.1 Foreign Competitor Considerations 3.2 General Shape of the Industry  Table 3.1 BASIC SITUATION OF DAIRY PROCESSING, 1997-2006 Table 3.2 SIZE OF CHINESE DAIRY PROCESSING ENTERPRISES, 2006 3.2 Dairy Product Output by City  Table 3.3 PRODUCTION DAIRY PRODUCTS BY MAJOR CITY OF PRODUCTION, 2001-2003 3.3 China’s Growth in Milk Production by International Standards  Table 3.4 CHINA’S GROWTH IN MILK PRODUCTION COMPARED TO OTHER MAJOR GLOBAL PRODUCERS, 2001 3.4 Output Value  Table 3.5 DAIRY PRODUCTS OUTPUT VALUE BY BROAD SECTOR IN CHINA, 2001-2006 3.5 Output Volume  Table 3.6 DAIRY PRODUCTS OUTPUT VOLUME BY BROAD SECTOR IN CHINA, 2001-2006 3.6 Trade, Production and Apparent Consumption  Table 3.7 CHINA POWDERED MILK IMPORTS, EXPORTS, PRODUCTION &APPARENT, INDUSTRIAL, HORECA & RETAIL CONSUMPTION VOLUME & VALUE, 2001-2006 4 SWOT ANALYSIS 4.1 Strengths 4.2 Weaknesses 4.3 Opportunities 4.4 Threats 5 LEADING COMPANIES 5.1 China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited  5.1.1 China Mengniu Dairy: Company Details 5.1.2 China Mengniu Dairy: China-based Activities 5.1.3 China Mengniu Dairy: Financial Summary  Table 5.1 CHINA MENGNIU DAIRY: FINANCIAL RESULTS, 2003-07(i) Table 5.2 CHINA MENGNIU DAIRY: SEGMENT FINANCIAL SUMMARY, 2003-2007(i) 5.2 Fonterra Co-operative Group  5.2.1 Fonterra Co-operative Group: Company Details 5.2.2 Fonterra Co-operative Group: China-based Activities 5.5.2 Fonterra Co-operative Group: Financial Summary  Table 5.3 FONTERRA CO-OPERATIVE GROUP: FINANCIAL RESULTS,  2003/04-2006/07(i) 5.3 Groupe Danone SA  5.3.1 Groupe Danone: Company Details 5.3.2 Groupe Danone: China-based Activities 5.3.3 Groupe Danone: Financial Results  Table 5.4 GROUPE DANONE: FINANCIAL RESULTS, 2004-2007(i) 5.4 Guangdong Yashili Group Company Limited  5.4.1 Guangdong Yashili Group: Company Details 5.4.2 Guangdong Yashili Group: Company Background 5.5 Heilongjiang Wandashan Dairy Company Limited  5.7.1 Heilongjiang Wandashan Dairy: Company Details 5.5.2 Heilongjiang Wandashan Dairy: Company Background 5.6 Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Company Limited  5.6.1 Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group: Company Details 5.6.2 Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group: Company Background 5.6.3 Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group: Financial Summary  Table 5.5 INNER MONGOLIA YILI INDUSTRIAL GROUP: FINANCIAL RESULTS,  2004-07(i) 5.7 Mead Johnson Nutritionals (China)  5.8.1 Mead Johnson Nutritionals (China): Company Details 5.8.2 Mead Johnson Nutritionals (China): China-based Activities  Table 5.6 MEAD JOHNSON NUTRITIONALS (CHINA): KEY PRODUCTS 5.8 Nestle  5.8.1 Nestle: Company Details 5.8.2 Nestle: China Operations  Table 5.7 NESTLE: SUBSIDIARIES IN CHINA, 2007 5.8.3 Nestle: Financial Results  Table 5.8 NESTLE: FINANCIAL RESULTS, 2003-2007(i) 5.9 Shijiazhuang Sanlu Group Company Limited  5.9.1 Shijiazhuang Sanlu Group: Company Details 5.9.2 Shijiazhuang Sanlu Group: Company Background  Table 5.9 SHIJIANGZHUANG SANLU GROUP: MILK POWDER MARKET SHARE, 2005-07 Table 5.10 SHIJIANGZHUANG SANLU GROUP: MILK POWDER RANGE 5.9.4 Shijiazhuang Sanlu Group: Financial Summary  Table 5.10 SHIJIANGZHUANG SANLU GROUP: FINANCIAL RESULTS, 2004-07(i) 5.10 Synutra International Inc  5.10.1 Synutra International: Company Details 5.10.2 Synutra International: Company Background  Table 5.11 SYNUTRA INTERNATIONAL: SUBSIDIARIES, 2007 5.10.4 Synutra International: Financial Summary  Table 5.12 SYNUTRA INTERNATIONAL: FINANCIAL SUMMARY, 2006/07-2007/08(i) 5.11 Wyeth  5.12.1 Wyeth: Company Details 5.11.2 Wyeth: China-based Operations  Table 5.13 WYETH: KEY MILK POWDER PRODUCTS IN CHINA 6 CONTACTS 6.1 Trade Organisations  6.1.1 Dairy Association of China 6.1.2 China Dairy Industry Association 6.2 Government Departments  6.2.1 Ministry of Agriculture 6.2.1 Ministry of Commerce 6.2.1 Ministry of Health 7 EXHIBITIONS & TRADE FAIRS 7.1 China Intel Dairy Industry Exhibition 7.2 DairyTek China 7.3 International FoodTec China 7.4 China FoodTech 7.5 China International Food Expo APPENDIX: MARKET BACKGROUND A.1 Fast Facts A.2 Regions of China  Map A.1 CHINA: PROVINCES AND MUNICIPALITIES A.3 Demographics  A.3.1 Demographics: Total Population  Table A.1 TOTAL POPULATION, 2000-2007 A.3.2 Demographics: Population by Location  Table A.2 POPULATION BY URBAN-RURAL DIVIDE, 2001-2007 A.3.3 Demographics: Population Breakdown by Location  Table A.3 POPULATION % BREAKDOWN BY URBAN-RURAL DIVIDE, 2001-2007 A.3.4 Demographics: Population by Province  Table A.4 POPULATION BY PROVINCE, 2001-2007 A.3.5 Demographics: Population Density by Province  Table A.5 POPULATION DENSITY BY PROVINCE, 2004-2007 A.3.6 Demographics: Population Concentration  Map A.2 POPULATION CONCENTRATIONS BY PROVINCE, 2007 A.3.7 Demographics: Population by Gender  Table A.6 TOTAL POPULATION BY GENDER & % BREAKDOWN, 2001-2007 A.3.8 Demographics: Population by Age Group  Table A.7 POPULATION BY AGE GROUP, 2001-2007 Table A.8 % BREAKDOWN OF POPULATION BY AGE GROUP, 2001-2007 A.4 Consumer Attitudes  A.4.1 Consumer Attitudes: Overview A.4.2 Consumer Attitudes: Response to Political Change A.4.2 Consumer Attitudes: Response to Economic Change A.4.3 Consumer Attitudes: Changes in Lifestyle  Livelihood Individual loans Housing Possessions Travel Entertainment Health and Fitness Purchasing Influences Taboos A.5 Consumer Wealth  A.5.1 Consumer Wealth: GDP and Cost of Living  Dealing with WTO China’s New Middle Class Table A.9 MIDDLE AND UPPER INCOME HOUSEHOLDS IN CHINA,  1995/2000/2005/2010/2015 Table A.10 TOTAL CONSUMPTION BY MIDDLE AND UPPER INCOME HOUSEHOLDS, 2005/2010/2015 Table A.11 CONSUMPTION BY MIDDLE AND UPPER INCOME HOUSEHOLDS & % OF TOTAL HOUSEHOLDS, 1995/2000/2005/2010/2015  Confident Shoppers Table A.12 GDP AND COST OF LIVING INDEX, 2001-2007 A.5.2 Consumer Wealth: Provincial GDP  Table A.13 GDP BY PROVINCE, 2001-2007 A.5.3 Consumer Wealth: GDP Growth by Province  Table A.14 GDP GROWTH BY PROVINCE, 2001-2007 A.5.4 Consumer Wealth: GDP Per Capita by Province  Table A.15 PER CAPITA GDP BY PROVINCE, 2001-2007 A.5.5 Consumer Wealth: Concentration of Wealth by Province  Map A.3 VALUE OF GDP PER CAPITA BY PROVINCE, 2007 A.5.6 Consumer Wealth: The Major Cities  Table A.16 LEADING CITIES KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS, 2007 A.6 Households  A.6.1 Households: Overview of Household Conditions A.6.2 Households: Total Households by Size  Table A.17 NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS BY SIZE, 2001-2007 A.6.3 Households: Total households by Urban/Rural Split  Table A.18 NUMBER AND SIZE OF HOUSEHOLDS BY LOCATION, 2001-2007 A.6.4 Households: Income Earners Per Household  Table A.19 AVERAGE NUMBER OF INCOME EARNERS PER HOUSEHOLD, 2001-2007 A.7 Employment  A.7.1 Employment: Number of Workers by Sector  Table A.20 NATIONAL EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR, 2001-2007 A.7.2 Employment: Growth by Sector  Table A.21 GROWTH IN EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR, 2001-2007 A.7.3 Employment: Number of Workers by Gender  Table A.22 TOTAL NATIONAL WORKFORCE BY GENDER, 2001-2007 A.7.3 Employment: Number of Workers by Habitation  Table A.23 NATIONAL WORKFORCE BY HABITATION, 2001-2007 A.7.4 Employment: Urban Unemployment  Table A.24 URBAN UNEMPLOYMENT RATES, 2001-2007 A.8 Consumer Income  A.8.1 Consumer Income: Average Incomes by Sector  Table A.25 AVERAGE INCOMES BY SECTOR, 2001-2007 A.8.2 Consumer Income: Growth by Sector  Table A.26 GROWTH IN AVERAGE INCOMES BY SECTOR, 2001-2007 A.8.3 Consumer Income: Average Incomes by Region  Table A.27 AVERAGE INCOMES BY REGION, 2001-2007 A.8.4 Consumer Income: Growth by Region  Table A.28 GROWTH IN AVERAGE INCOMES BY REGION, 2001-2007 A.9 Consumer Market  A.9.1 Consumer Market: Spending Trends  Table A.29 CONSUMER EXPENDITURE(i) BY BROAD SECTOR AT CURRENT PRICES, 2001-2007(i) A.9.2 Consumer Market: Per Capita Consumer Expenditure  Table A.30 PER CAPITA CONSUMER EXPENDITURE(i) BY BROAD SECTOR AT CURRENT PRICES, 2001-2007(i) A.9.3 Consumer Market: Retail Sales and Consumer Spending  Table A.31 RETAIL SALES AS A PROPORTION OF CONSUMER EXPENDITURE(i),  2000-2006 A.9.4 Consumer Market: Urban Income and Spending Compared  Table A.32 URBAN AVERAGE ANNUAL INCOME/EXPENDITURE, 2001-2007 A.10 Exchange Rates  A.10.1 Exchange Rates: China  Table A.33 AVERAGE ANNUAL RENMINBI EXCHANGE RATES AGAINST A VARIETY OF CURRENCIES, 2000-2007 A.10.2 Exchange Rates: Hong Kong  Table A.34 AVERAGE ANNUAL HONG KONG DOLLAR EXCHANGE RATES AGAINST THE UNITED STATES DOLLAR AND RENMINBI, 2000- 

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Powdered Milk in China 2008: A Market Analaysis

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