Doha: Pascal Lamy’s Theses and Figures Questioned by the Conclusions of a Group of International Economists
– While Some States Envisage a “New Approach” to Resume the Doha Round,
the Theses and Figures Put Forward by
of the International Workshop Organized at the Sorbonne on
by momagri’s Head Economist
stated at the end of this workshop: “agricultural price volatility, the
impact of speculation and the progress made in understanding agricultural
markets, questions the WTO’s liberalization strategy on agricultural markets.”
(Logo: http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/20081013/324331 )
Thus, the thirty economists present from the IMF, FAO, World Bank, OECD,
American universities, think tanks, and different government departments,
have reached a general consensus on two main points:
- the international community's long sidestepping of the issue
of the volatile prices of staple agricultural products, could
exacerbate food insecurity,
- the current economic models that guide international
decisions are unable to make sense of this reality.
Hence the importance of building a new international economic model,
according to
model must faithfully include current agricultural issues: price volatility,
the financialization of the markets and their consequences on food security.
The momagri model meets these demands for improved realism. This is why
Timmer
Foundation, labeled it as “the first of its kind, that we cannot ignore” in
assessing the impact of a liberalization policy on agricultural markets .
How then, can
billion dollars
reached in
the impact of risks, price volatility, or speculation on financialized
markets, which are essential to the agricultural economic analysis.
Lets us not forget that what is at stake behind these negotiations, is
the survival of close to a billion people who suffer from hunger, as well as
the survival of more than 40% of the world population that live from
agriculture. As
is urgent to return to negotiations that finally take full measures for the
risks facing agricultural markets.
Results of the latest simulations of the momagri model
In this respect, the latest simulations by the momagri model have shaken
the belief that a conclusion of the Doha Round would benefit all farmers, in
particular, those in developing countries. Worse, they show that complete
unregulated liberalization of international agricultural trade could lead to:
- a significant reduction in the revenues of farmers from the
poorest countries, (in some scenarios the reduction could be more
than half, and therefore, likely to ruin many farmers in these
countries)
- a lesser underlying reduction, but very significant for
emerging importing countries such as India
- a significant erosion of the revenues of farmers from
developed countries. Consequently, instead of encouraging the
optimization of factors of production, it would jeopardize
worldwide food security, as well as the development of many
countries.
Only emerging exporting countries, such as
out unscathed, but without compensating for the general reduction in
production.
About momagri
momagri is a
agriculture. Founded and chaired by Pierre Pagesse, Chairman of the French
Groupe Limagrain, the organization includes representatives of agricultural
enterprises and officials from the healthcare, economic development, strategy
and defense fields. It aims to support the regulation of agricultural markets
by way of new evaluation tools (such as economic models and indicators) and
new proposals for an international agriculture and food governance based on
free-trade principles.
SOURCE momagri