September 16, 2009
UCLA sees sluggish recovery in U.S., Calif
A widely watched UCLA study predicts a conservative approach to lending and consumer spending will slow down the U.S. economic recovery.
The UCLA Anderson Forecast agreed Wednesday that the recession technically came to an end this summer; however, the negative impacts will linger at least into next year.
Author David Shulman said in a written statement that real U.S. GDP will increase 2.1 percent this quarter and 2.3 percent in the coming fourth quarter. Growth in 2010 will run around 2 percent quarterly and gain a little more traction by 2011.
The report said the recovery would be slow due to the reluctance of banks to lend and consumers to start running up their debt.
Credit-impaired lower-income consumers can't spend the way they used to, and wealth-impaired affluent consumers won't, Shulman said.
UCLA also predicted that California's enormous economy was showing some signs of getting back on its feet in the manufacturing, retail and hospitality sectors. The bad news is that unemployment will probably average around 11.6 percent all of next year.