Chinese Oil Demand Resumes Uptrend in September After August Dip

HONG KONG, Oct. 23 /PRNewswire/ — Platts — Chinese oil demand climbed out of its August trough to 33.8 million metric tons in September, as refiners in the world’s second largest oil consumer raised their crude processing rates and at the same time, the country’s net refined product imports went up, a Platts analysis of official data showed October 23.

Demand in August had slipped 5.4% from July to 33.02 million metric tons, the first month-on-month decline since March.

Though on-year comparison showed a 12.6% spike in September oil demand, market sources cautioned the comparison could be skewed by China having eased up on its fuel inventory build-up following the conclusion of the Beijing Olympics in August 2008.

Chinese refiners collectively processed 32.83 million metric tons (8 million barrels per day) of crude in September, a 14% jump from a year ago, but a smaller 0.8% rise compared with August.

Meanwhile, China’s cumulative apparent oil consumption in the first nine months of this year was 288.25 million metric tons, a growth rate of 2.15% over the corresponding period of 2008.

“China’s September oil data seems to signal a resumption of demand growth, but it is still early days,” said Vandana Hari, Asia news director at Platts. “China’s industrial production, the engine behind its economic growth, still appears to be on shaky ground. While gasoline consumption in the country is growing, supported by the government’s stimulus measures, diesel demand remains lackluster, an indication of the divergence between real growth and one sustained artificially.”

Net crude imports in September fell 6.1% from August to 16.83 million metric tons (4.1 million barrels per day), and slid off July’s peak of 19.2 million metric tons, indicating that the country drew down its inventories.

    MONTHLY TRADE DATA IN MILLION METRIC TONS:
                       Sep'09 Sep'08  % Chg Aug'09 Jul'09 Jun'09 May'09 Apr'09
    Net crude imports   16.83  14.45  +16.5  17.92  19.20  16.31  16.62  15.81
    Crude production    15.72  15.60   +0.8  16.32  16.14  15.71  16.03  15.59
    Apparent demand     33.80  30.02  +12.6  33.02  34.92  33.35  33.23  31.47

Platts calculates China’s apparent or implied oil demand on the basis of crude throughput volumes at the domestic refineries and net oil product imports, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics and Chinese customs.

The government releases data on imports, exports, domestic crude production and refinery throughput data, but does not give official data on the country’s actual oil consumption figure and oil stockpiles.

Platts releases its monthly calculation of China’s apparent demand between the 18th and 26th of every month via press release and via its website. Any use of this information must be appropriately attributed to Platts.

For more information on crude oil, visit the Platts website at www.platts.com. For Chinese-language information on oil and the energy and metals markets, visit http://www.platts.cn/.

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SOURCE Platts