Commodity Weather Group Forecasts a Warmer Winter
BETHESDA, Md., Aug. 23 /PRNewswire/ — The Commodity Weather Group, LLC (CWG) released its latest winter 2010-11 outlook for its energy clients this morning, and it tells a notably different story from last winter. The core heating season in the U.S. is forecast to be 29% warmer year-on-year from December through February. As a result, CWG is now forecasting the warmest winter since 2006-07.
Energy demand should run lower than normal for key population centers on the East Coast, through the Southern production region, and even into many of the Midwest consuming areas. The best opportunity for higher heating demand should be in the Western U.S., especially in the Pacific Northwest and in western Canada (including Calgary). Pacific Northwest hydro-electric supplies should see a significant surplus this year, with as much as a 20% above normal snow water equivalent by the end of the upcoming water season.
The South and East, which saw significant snow and cold last winter, are forecast to experience a major reversal, as the North and West become the primary recipients of the worst winter weather. The primary factor for the reversal is the developing strong La Nina — a significant cooling of waters in the central Tropical Pacific. CWG believes this winter could see one of the strongest La Nina events on record.
“While the Midwest and Northeast have seen cold winters during strong La Nina events, the confluence of many factors appears to argue against this,” explains CWG President and meteorologist Matt Rogers. “Our team will be monitoring these key factors very closely this autumn for any indications that may change expectations.”
CWG’s commodity weather team was the earliest weather provider to correctly predict last winter’s colder outcome for the Eastern and Southern U.S.
SOURCE Commodity Weather Group, LLC