Teal Worldwide Mission Model Identifies 2,315 Known Payloads for 2011-2030
COLORADO SPRINGS, Colo., April 13, 2011 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ — The Teal Group today announced the release of its Worldwide Mission Model 2011 at the Space Foundation’s 27th( )National Space Symposium in Colorado Springs, CO. The mission model, which has tracked proposed space payloads since 1992, provides a snapshot of known possible payloads for the next 20 years. The current survey for 2011-2030 identifies 2,315 payloads — an increase of 4% over last year’s count.
“The mission model is the first step in putting together a forecast of the payloads market,” said Marco Caceres, senior space analyst for the Teal Group (http://www.tealgroup.com) in Fairfax, VA. “It is meant as a rough draft from which to begin piecing together what we believe the future market may look like, based on certain assumptions about current and upcoming programs, competitors, investors, political priorities, and technology trends, as well as related historical cycles.”
The mission model contains the specific name of each payload and basic data about it, including its type, intended orbit, mass, host country or region, primary manufacturer, owner/operator, and launch vehicle program. Unlike a forecast, which by its nature must include unnamed or made-up payloads, the mission model is more of a clearinghouse of the payloads that governments, companies, universities, and other organizations announce they are developing or plan to build and launch.
What is most useful about the mission model are the unit totals by category. For example, if you look at the breakdown by type of payload, there are more commercial payloads being proposed than any other kind. Of the 2,315 payloads, 38% are commercial, 35% are civil, 20% are military, and 7% are university and ‘other’ types. If you then look at the breakdown by orbit, what you see is that most of the payloads are destined for low earth orbits. Of the total payloads, 63% are intended for low earth, 23% for geostationary, 8% for medium earth, 5% for deep space, and 1% for elliptical.
Of the 2,315 payloads, Teal Group estimates that at least half will never make it past the drawing board or early stages of development, because of insufficient funding, technical challenges, or the perceived lack of a user market. “On the other hand, other payloads of which we are not yet aware will eventually be adequately financed, built, and launched,” noted Caceres. “The trick is to have enough material with which to begin realistically gauging the market, so that the process of forecasting is more than just guesswork.”
The Teal Group is a defense and aerospace consultancy serving the market analysis needs of both government and private industry for the past quarter century.
SOURCE Teal Group Corp.