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Above Active Hurricane Season Predicted: Forecast: South Texas Has 17 Percent Chance of Being Hit

Posted on: Sunday, 4 June 2006, 09:00 CDT

By Kevin Garcia, The Brownsville Herald, Texas

Jun. 4--Meteorologists and coastal residents are keeping a wary eye on the Atlantic Ocean following last year's devastating hurricane season.

Today kicks off the official start of the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season, and experts are predicting an active year, although nothing like last year.

"Anybody from Brownsville, Texas, to Portland, Maine, is vulnerable to hurricanes," said Dennis Feltgen, meteorologist with the National Hurricane Center in Silver Spring, Md.

The season is expected to produce 17 named storms, nine hurricanes and five major hurricanes. Two to four of those storms could hit the United States.

In an average year, only 10 named storms would be expected.

"For the entire U.S. coastline, the probability of a major hurricane landfall is 82 percent compared to the last century average of 52 percent," said Phil Koltzbach, lead author of hurricane forecast from the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colo.

There is a 38 percent chance a storm will reach the Gulf Coast, according to the forecast. The South Texas coast has a 17 percent chance of being hit by a storm, compared to the 13 percent chance this area had during hurricane seasons over the century.

As small as that chance might seem, Koltzbach warned not to take the threat of landfall lightly.

"It's something you want to pay attention to," he said. "Would you go outside if there was a one in five chance of getting hit by a car? That would be about the same."

Last year, only 15 named storms were expected. Instead, the Atlantic saw a record-breaking 28 storms, including several that went beyond Nov. 30, which is the end of hurricane season.

Jesse Haro, warning coordination meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Brownsville, said people should always be prepared, no matter the predictions.

"I would not use these numbers as an excuse to not prepare for hurricane season," Haro said. "All it takes is one storm."

"Hurricane Andrew hit in 1992 over South Florida. That was a relatively quiet year, but that one storm devastated the entire area," he said.

Feltgen agreed. Brownsville is hit by a Category 1 hurricane, on average, once every 14 years, according to the hurricane center. Category 5 storms, the most powerful hurricanes, are only expected near the city once every 210 years.

The last major hurricane to hit Brownsville was Allen in 1980, a storm more powerful than Hurricane Katrina at its strongest. Allen, however, weakened some as it hit the coast, and the force of the storm avoided the Valley's most populated.

Emily, another powerful storm, narrowly missed the Rio Grande Valley last year.

Experts agreed hurricane activity goes in cycles, with some periods being more likely to have active hurricane seasons. This was true in the middle decades of the 20th Century. The current active cycle is believed to have begun in 1995.

"Statistics," Feltgen said. "You can make (them) to read any darn thing you want."

"Statistically speaking, if you have more hurricanes floating around the gulf, the chances are going to go up that more will strike land," he said. "That was certainly the case last year and certainly the case in 1933."

In 1933, the city was devastated by a series of tropical storms that reshaped the Cameron County coastline and destroyed hundreds of homes.

"We actually had four systems that came within a couple hundred miles of Brownsville," Haro said. "Hurricanes, depending on the size and movement, can have profound impact for hundreds and hundreds of miles."

After the impact of Katrina, a storm blamed for more than 1,800 deaths in the Louisiana-Mississippi area, more coastal residents seem to be listening to warnings, forecasters said.

"It is a very unfortunate circumstance that so many people died last year as a result of the hurricanes," Feltgen said.

"If there is any silver lining to this, it's that the people that live along the hurricane zones are more in tune, more aware."

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Copyright (c) 2006, The Brownsville Herald, Texas

Distributed by Knight Ridder/Tribune Business News.

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Source: The Brownsville Herald

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