Where Homes Sit Empty, School Growth Might Slow

By Debby Abe, The News Tribune, Tacoma, Wash.

Jan. 22–The sluggish housing market could contribute to a temporary enrollment slowdown in the burgeoning Puyallup School District, a demographer says.

Still, Puyallup will likely grow by about 110 students next school year, an increase of about 0.5 percent, consultant Les Kendrick predicts. That’s about half the district’s average rate of growth of 1.2 percent annually over the past five years.

Puyallup, the second-largest district in Pierce County, tallied 20,885 students in its October head count, a common enrollment benchmark for districts statewide.

Meanwhile, officials in nearby Bethel and Orting school districts say they could see a dip or stabilizing of student numbers due at least in part to the cooling housing market.

“We have a lot of real estate out here that’s just sitting,” said Jack Gilletti, assistant superintendent of the Orting district.

Puyallup hired Kendrick to project its enrollment from next school year through the year 2020. Districts depend on such forecasts to build the following year’s operating budget and plan for school construction needs.

Kendrick, a demographer who consults for many school districts, uses birth rate, housing, enrollment, population and other data to develop his forecasts.

If Kendrick’s estimate for Puyallup is realized this fall, it would be in line with the district’s stairstep pattern of growth the past decade: increase by 500-plus students one year, add progressively fewer students the next two to three years, and then repeat the pattern with another 500-student jump the following year.

After growing by more than 500 pupils in fall 2005, Puyallup added 276 children the following year and 123 students this fall.

But the cooling housing market could also become a factor.

Kendrick noted that quarterly sales of new homes within the district boundaries in 2007 were down from every quarter of the previous year.

“If new home sales start to slow considerably the district could see some slowdown in enrollment growth,” he wrote in his report.

Yet student numbers will continue to rise; it’s just a matter of how quickly.

“It is important to remember that the district has averaged sales of over 600 new single family homes annually over the past few years,” Kendrick wrote. “Even if there is a slowdown in new home sales, the district may continue to see new students from the homes sold in the past few years.”

In November, 883 new single family homes were on the market within district boundaries, slightly fewer than in recent years.

And as of December, there were 2,946 single family homes and 1,193 condos, apartments and townhomes planned for future construction, mostly in the South Hill area.

Besides new homes, the birthrate is climbing, a national trend.

Kendrick projects the district would resume adding more than 200 students annually starting in fall 2009.

In 2011, schools could see a bump in kindergarten enrollment from youngsters born in 2006, which saw Pierce County’s largest number of births (11,139 newborns) in 20 years. By 2015, the district could enroll nearly 22,700 students and hit 24,000 in 2020.

The forecast means the district needs to continue gearing up for more students, said Debra Aungst, Puyallup schools’ assistant superintendent for management services.

“By 2011, we’ll have to house 900 more kids than today,” she said. “We don’ t have that capacity without overcrowding.”

BETHEL MAY DECLINE

Officials in neighboring Bethel are still developing enrollment projections for next school year. But it appears Bethel will forecast a decline in student numbers for next school year, said Harvey Erickson, the district’s chief financial officer.

The district, which encompasses Spanaway, Graham and Frederickson, saw enrollment fall for the first time in at least a decade during the October head count of 17,835 students, 15 fewer than a year earlier. The slide was greatest in kindergarten, the most difficult grade to predict.

The stalled housing market likely played a role in the overall decline. Two other possible factors: military dependents leaving the district after a parent was deployed overseas and the three-day teachers’ strike at the start of school. The strike may have prompted some parents to pull prospective kindergartners from the district, he said.

“Something’s happened,” Erickson said. “We’re not sure if it’s a blip or seeds of a longer trend.”

Though there have been rumors that the student numbers delayed the opening of Frederickson Elementary and Nelson Elementary in Graham, Erickson said it’s actually the slower-than-expected permitting process that pushed them to fall 2009.

The district still needs the extra space, he said. “We already have overcrowding in a couple elementaries,” he said.

ORTING’S PLATEAU

Depressed housing sales will likely affect Orting schools’ enrollment, as well.

Orting, another community of mushrooming housing developments in recent years, grew by 44 students this year over last, an increase of 2.25 percent.

But while he hasn’t yet finalized his enrollment forecast, assistant superintendent Gilletti says it appears next school year’s enrollment could remain about the same as this year: 2,044.

Before the real estate market stalled, the district had projected it would grow by 150 to 200 students over the next two years.

“Local realtors tell us there are over 500 homes in our area that haven’t sold,” he said. “When all of them finally sell, we could have another 200 kids at our doorstep. However, we’re hearing the real estate slowdown may not ease until the summer of 2009.”

The district will have room for more students next fall, when a new building for Orting Middle School opens and the high school continues its renovation and expansion.

Most districts Orting’s size, with adequate facilities, prefer some growth because each student generates state revenue, Gilletti said. Although it costs more to instruct additional children, the larger the total enrollment, the greater the amount of discretionary spending the district has. That’s especially true for small districts that have to cover such basics as utilities, transportation and a certain number of staff, no matter the number of pupils.

“Once additional students enter our schools, we’ll have a little more funding to purchase a few more instructional materials,” Gilletti said, “… add a teacher here or there, a paraprofessional, or even an extra grounds person to mow the lawn more often.”

Debby Abe: 253-597-8694

PUYALLUP SCHOOL DISTRICT ENROLLMENT and PROJECTIONS

YEARSTUDENTSTOTAL

ADDED

ACTUAL GROWTH

200014618,830

200152519,355

200229319,648

200317719,825

200413319,958

200552820,486

200627620,762

200712320,885

PROJECTED GROWTH

200811020,995

200923321,228

201024421,472

201131421,786

201235222,138

201315122,289

201419622,485

201520222,687

20162332 2,920

201723023,150

201826023,410

201928323,693

202037224,065

These are the actual numbers of students enrolled full and part time in the Puyallup School District each October from 2000 to 2007, followed by projections of enrollment from 2008 through 2020 under a medium growth scenario.

Numbers don’t include students attending the college-based Running Start program full time or Chief Leschi School students. Go to www.thenewstribune.com to see a PowerPoint presentation based on W. Les Kendrick’s report, “Puyallup School District Trends & Projections.”

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Copyright (c) 2008, The News Tribune, Tacoma, Wash.

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