Too Many Unknowns to Predict Future Costs

Former defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld once famously described uncertainties as “known unknowns” and “unknown unknowns.”

Local officials and voters at this year’s town and school district meetings are struggling primarily with “known unknowns.” They know it’s going to snow, but how much? They know they’ll have to spend a large sum on special education, but they can’t know how much without knowing whether their schools will see an influx of children with special needs.

Chichester’s special education costs are projected to increase by $190,000 to nearly $889,000 next year because more students will be sent outside the district. Pembroke special education costs grew by $791,000 and voters added an extra $150,000 to cover a special education deficit from last year. Northwood voters put an extra $50,000 in their special education contingency fund, but Dunbarton voted to wait and see what the future brings.

In tough economic times, when tax bills rise as incomes fall, it’s tempting to look for scapegoats. Sadly, some people have settled on special education in a way that puts the blame on children who need help instead of on the state and federal governments, which should be helping a whole lot more.

The cost of special education should not be borne by local school districts. It’s unfair to the many students who will be in a larger class, get less help from aides, or lose the opportunity to study art or music because the budget for such things has been devoured by special education costs. That expense should be shared as broadly as possible, which means by federal and state government.

Special education costs aren’t the only “unknown” capable of wild gyrations. Budgeting for next year has never been so difficult. It can’t be done by looking at last year’s expenses and factoring for inflation. Energy, health care and employee retirement costs are rising too unpredictably for that. Climate change makes weather forecasting more difficult. And for communities like Weare, which stands to lose more than $1.9 million in state education aid, the tax rate hangs on decisions yet to be made by a Legislature that changes education funding formulas more often than some car owners change motor oil.

Then, as Rumsfeld might say, there are also the “unknown unknowns.” Catastrophic flooding was largely in that category. Then, the massive Alstead flood of 2005 was followed by major flooding in Epping, Epsom, Concord and other communities in subsequent years. Major floods had become rare, but now, the size of the snow banks have officials in many communities guessing about how much they’ll have to spend to replace washed-out roads and culverts this spring.

There are unknowns on the revenue side as well. Concord, for example, has seen a $3.9 million drop in revenue. The economy’s slide toward recession means people are buying fewer new vehicles. Federal interest rate cuts to boost the economy are busting the return the city earns on its investments, and fewer taxable new buildings are going up.

City Finance Director Jim Howard says the long-term trends are more dismal than any he’s seen in his nearly three decades of service to the city. Cuts will have to be made, needs redefined and “wants” put off. What mustn’t occur, however, is an eating of the seed corn. Neither the state, nor New Hampshire’s communities, can afford to scrimp on the education of its students, including those with special needs. If that happens, the long-term forecast could be permanently grim.

Correction

The wrong list was used to determine the names of the towns that Sunday’s editorial described as having passed a resolution calling for an end to the state’s tax “Pledge.” The towns listed as having adopted the resolution will vote on the issue this year. Henniker is the only area town among the 13 communities that adopted the resolution last year.

Also, the percentage of Donna Lee McCabe’s income consumed by property taxes was wrongly cited as 2 percent. It is 25 percent.

Originally published by Monitor staff.

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