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Population Increases Expected to Continue

Posted on: Thursday, 28 July 2005, 03:01 CDT

Enrollment in the Richmond County school district rose this year for the first time in at least five years, growth that is expected to continue through this decade, officials said Wednesday.

Figures show an active enrollment of 33,988 pupils during the 2004-05 school year, a 3.8 percent jump from the previous year.

Similar growth was witnessed in Columbia County schools, where Superintendent Tommy Price said many of those are families who moved from Richmond County. He said the increase of cheaper housing there is contributing to the increases in enrollment, which topped 20,000 for the 2004-05 school year - up about 2.5 percent from the previous year.

"The increase in apartments and multi-unit type developments that are more affordable open up Columbia County to folks that otherwise couldn't make the move," Mr. Price said.

Before this year, the Richmond County school system had seen repeated declines in enrollment since 1999.

But a study by national planning consultant Kelley Carey predicts a steady risein enrollment from now through 2009, when the number of pupils is estimated to top 36,600.

Mr. Carey uses data such as live births, U.S. census figures and building permits for his estimates. He said he does not use discussions of migration to another county in his statistical model.

"I think that is just talk, and you don't base your planning and you don't base your public expenditures on education on talk," he said. "For somebody to say there is an out-migration to some other county, well, what have they done to measure the positive notes of who is coming in?

"We project it based on actual data that is in hand, not people's guesses. It's not like looking into a crystal ball and some hocus pocus. ... The data shows it."

Mr. Carey, who works for Associated Planning & Research in Hilton Head, S.C., has used his model to project enrollments for school districts nationwide since the 1970s. He said his formula is accepted by more than a dozen federal courts for desegregation purposes.

Superintendent Charles Larke said he attributes this year's enrollment jump to a population boom in south Augusta. The growth in that area has led to the construction of two new elementary schools and talk of a new middle school.

Mr. Carey agreed that Richmond County's multiple construction projects can play a big part in growth.

"The construction program alone and raising the profile of the school buildings - that is going to be immensely valuable in the future for keeping people" in Richmond County, he said.

Meanwhile, Columbia County's school population has grown by 500 to 600 children at the onset of each new school year since 2002. Mr. Price expects a similar increase when school begins again in August.

"We projected an increase of a little over 500, but that's probably a little conservative," the superintendent said.

"I think it's fairly safe to say that, outside of the Metro Atlanta area, we are the fastest-growing system."

Finding construction money needed to build new schools to accommodate Columbia County's growth can be a challenge, Mr. Price said. But it can also be beneficial.

"That knife cuts both ways," Mr. Price said. "As you earn your capital outlay money from the state, it's based on growth. If you're a fast-growing system, the state funding formula recognizes you need more money."

However, schools are nearly bursting at the seams before state officials come through with the cash, he said.

"You have to get overcrowded, put kids in portables and live that way for a while before the formula catches up to you," he said. "It does cause some cramped conditions and overcrowded schools We just have to accept that like all other fast-growing systems."

Reach Greg Rickabaugh and Donnie Fetter at (706) 724-0851

or newsroom@augustachronicle.com.

Source: Augusta Chronicle, The

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