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Enrollment in Tennessee's Public Universities Hits Brakes

Posted on: Monday, 19 September 2005, 15:00 CDT

Sep. 19--Last year, enrollment in Tennessee's public universities and colleges grew as much in a single year as it had in the previous decade -- driven by the state's new lottery-funded scholarships.

This fall the scholarships are still there, but the increase in student numbers is apparently going to be a lot more modest, and no one seems to know why exactly.

"The one caution is, this is all preliminary until later in the fall," said Brian Noland, associate executive director of the Tennessee Higher Education Commission. "In late October, we'll pin all this (the numbers) down."

The preliminary enrollment figures do appear to indicate a couple of things.

One is that the overall enrollment in the state's nine universities and 13 community colleges will climb past the 200,000 mark for the first time, up from 199,921.

But the increase won't match the surge in the fall of 2004.

"I still think we are going to hit it (the 200,000 mark), but it's going to be close," Noland said.

Total enrollment in the Tennessee Board of Regents and the University of Tennessee systems rose 2.1 percent in 2004, up more than 4,000 students.

This year, the numbers are up at the universities -- most notably the University of Tennessee at Martin and Austin Peay State University -- but the overall increase there might not be much more than 1,500 students.

The state's community colleges, however, are all over the place, with seven showing losses and the overall community college enrollment falling from 75,723 last year to the 75,255 figure reported earlier this month.

"We were thinking it (the overall enrollment increase) might be close to 2 percent," said George Malo, associate vice chancellor for research and assessment for the Board of Regents. "We were thinking it might be like that, so that's why we need to analyze (the raw data) to see what some of the impacts are."

Instead of a 2 percent increase, enrollment at the TBR institutions, which include six universities and 13 community colleges, was flat at 156,742 students.

That's only 41 more students than it had last year.

The UT system showed a solid increase.

UT Knoxville has seen a dramatic rise in applications since the lottery scholarships debuted, but its overall numbers aren't increasing that much. It has turned away students the last two years.

Robert A. Levy, UT's vice president for academic affairs, said enrollment rose significantly at the University of Georgia when that state started its lottery scholarship program a few years ago.

"But that effect is suppressed here because this campus is desperately trying to control its enrollment," Levy said. "I mean, the Knoxville campus either has to control its enrollment or it has to find a lot of money to build new facilities and hire new faculty."

Both Noland and Malo, who are waiting on detailed student data, suspect where the losses are in the community colleges.

"I think the decreases at the community colleges are going to be an interesting story," Noland said. "And much of the decrease, in my opinion, is the decline in nontraditional students."

Since 1994, the number of students ages 25 and older has dropped steadily in the state's colleges, as has the number of part-time students.

"Nobody seems to know why," Noland said.

Both groups tend to be more heavily represented in the community colleges.

There are other possible explanations for the lower-than-expected figures.

"One of the things we want to look at is whether private school enrollment went up and how much of (the smaller growth) could be attributed to that," Malo said. "Especially those families that are right on the borderline of affording a private school. It (lottery scholarships) might shove them over to the private school."

Claude O. Pressnell Jr., president of the Tennessee Independent Colleges and Universities Association, said, "Everything seems to be trending up for us."

He cautioned, however, that he doesn't have firm numbers yet.

Enrollment has been rising steadily for years among the members of the 37-school association.

"We tend to go up 1 to 2 percent per year," Pressnell said. "Last year we went up over 4 percent. So our increase was definitely more than we had anticipated, and it appears that this year we should at least be on track with the 3- to 4-percent increase again.

"But, again, it's anecdotal; it's not hard numbers yet," he added.

Tennessee Wesleyan College, for example, has its second-highest enrollment ever with 865 students this fall. It has seen significant increases in recent years.

Scott Mashburn, TWC's vice president for student life and enrollment management, attributed the numbers to improved recruiting, an emphasis on retaining students and campus improvements.

Plus, the lottery scholarships have had an impact on the school's enrollment.

"I think it can be a tipping point," Mashburn said, explaining that it can make the difference for students who want the small, private college experience but weren't sure they could afford it until they got that extra scholarship.

The lottery scholarships can provide $13,200-$19,200 over four years.

"Last year was probably the most substantial jump we've had," Mashburn said.

Levy said he thinks it will take time for things to sort out.

"I just think that until we have two or three years with relative stasis regarding the lottery, we are just going to have numbers, whether up or down, that are going to surprise us because the lottery is so new."

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Source: The Knoxville News-Sentinel

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