VISD Enrollment Declining

By Tracy Simmons, Victoria Advocate, Texas

Jan. 26–Victoria Advocate Victoria school enrollment is expected to decrease somewhat during the next 10 years, which means the district likely won’t need additional campuses, according to preliminary findings by groups charged with making recommendations on school facilities.

The girls shower room in the gym at the Memorial High School senior campus are in poor condition. The Master Facilities Plan Advisory Committee will decide whether to suggest to the school board that the gym be replaced.

The Master Facilities Plan Advisory Committee has been meeting since December. Its job is to review the school District Master Facilities Plan Report, developed by consultant Ned Walton, and make final recommendations to the school board. The committee is comprised of five subcommittees — demographics, educational structure, facilities, finance and site — whose findings will be used to develop the recommendations.

At a meeting Tuesday, several of the subcommittees had reports prepared. Among those was the facilities subcommittee, which found that the district should abandon Mitchell Guidance Center and that the Memorial High School senior campus has buildings that need to be replaced.

Specifically, facilities subcommittee Chair Larry Garrett said findings include:

No elementary schools need to be closed.

Mitchell Guidance Center campus should be abandoned and the students should be moved to an existing elementary school building and the students from that school moved to a new elementary campus. Walton said a new elementary school would cost an estimated $10 million.

Other elementary campuses need to be upgraded in stages.

Outlying elementary schools should be preserved.

An upgrade at Crain Middle School should be continued with an emphasis on eliminating long-term use of portable buildings.

Existing high school campuses need targeted renovations, but do not need abandonment at this time.

The Memorial High School senior campus needs its gym, band hall and cafeteria replaced.

“VISD maintenance staff has kept the buildings highly functional,” Garrett said.

The Demographics Subcommittee was given three different school enrollment projection scenarios. Member Elizabeth Rogers said the group believes the historical growth scenario, created by Walton, is the most accurate demographic analysis and should be used.

The scenario projects a reduction in school enrollment based on several factors:

Nine of 12 surrounding school districts, as well as all but one of the private schools in Victoria County, are experiencing declining enrollment.

Birth trends for the school district declined four of the past five years.

Texas State Data Center projections for Victoria County through 2020 project that it is the population groups of those older than 45, and especially those older than 65, that will increase.

The subcommittee found no evidence to support substantial growth in economic activity that would translate to increased student population in the near future.

Walton’s historical growth scenario projects that the district will see a decline of 400 to 700 students during the next 10 years. As of Jan. 5 the district’s enrollment was 13,859 students.

The advisory committee voted to adopt a recommendation based on the subcommittee’s report. “Projected enrollment growth over the next five years is expected to be stable, plus or minus 1 percent, and does not alone justify construction of new schools,” the recommendation reads. Also on Tuesday, Joe Dahlstrom previewed the educational structure subcommittee’s report.

The group does not want to see “any major changes,” Dahlstrom said. The group plans to research the possibilities of adding sixth grade to elementary school, placing more stress on vocational programs, keeping class sizes manageable, creating a second high school and possibly doing away with a ninth-grade center once a second high school is built.

The full committee did not take a vote regarding education structure.

The meeting got off to a rocky start. Interim Superintendent Claudia Iselt and Walton started the meeting by suggesting the committee review its process and mission. But committee members said they had waited long enough and were ready to start talking about findings.”We currently have a report from facilities, demographics and structure,” Finance Subcommittee Chair Joe Wyatt said. “Those reports have been sitting on somebody’s desk for the past two to three weeks. We’ve never been given the opportunity to discuss it.”

The committee meets again Tuesday, at which time other subcommittees are expected to discuss their findings.

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