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Projections Spark Criticism *** Critics Say Optimistic Estimates for N.O. Schools Could Hurt Other Districts

Posted on: Thursday, 9 March 2006, 21:00 CST

By WILL SENTELL

Projections spark criticism *** Critics say optimistic estimates for N.O. schools could hurt other districts

State predictions that struggling public school enrollment in New Orleans will more than double by August triggered criticism Wednesday that the overly optimistic estimates could hurt other schools.

The issue is relevant for public schools in East Baton Rouge Parish and others in the area amid the annual scramble for state aid. How much New Orleans gets on a wide range of money issues is expected to be a recurring theme during the 2006 session of the Legislature, which begins March 27.

The enrollment spat surfaced during a meeting of the House and Senate education committees. The joint panel met with state education leaders less than a week before the states top school board sends the Legislature an estimated $2.7 billion plan for basic state aid to public schools starting on July 1.

Enrollment is one of the key issues in deciding how much assistance public schools get.

Statewide enrollment was about 632,000 on Feb. 1, down from about 700,000 for the 2004-05 school year. Thousands of students and their families fled to Texas and elsewhere after Hurricane Katrina struck Aug. 29.

However, state forecasts that public school enrollment in New Orleans will rise from about 10,000 students now to at least 22,000 students by Aug. 1 sparked questions and criticism.

I think we have a few skeptics on this committee, said House Education Committee Chairman Carl Crane, R-Baton Rouge.

Rep. Hunter Greene, R-Baton Rouge, agreed.

Can anybody tell me this isnt a shot in the dark? Greene asked of the prediction.

Critics said the issue has special significance because New Orleans public schools face other costly needs, including electricity for vacant schools, amid a heavily damaged local tax base.

State education leaders defended enrollment estimates and noted that they are more conservative than those of demographers, who think public school enrollment will rise to 28,000 by Aug. 1 and 34,000 by Jan. 1.

Obviously that is a significant ramp up, said Raphael Rabalais, senior planner for GCR & Associates Inc. in New Orleans, an urban planning firm.

Rabalais said the estimates are based on a wide range of issues, including the assumption that formerly occupied housing will be filled again and the expectation that housing patterns for students and their families before the hurricane will remain essentially the same. He said that close to 100 percent of homes that were not flooded will be occupied again by summer.

Rabalais also said there is evidence that, once schools resume operations, they are filled quickly.

The Orleans Parish School District, which covers the city of New Orleans, had a public school enrollment of about 63,000 for the 2004- 05 school year. It was long considered one of the most-troubled school districts in the nation.

Enrollment was listed as 7,920 on Feb. 1.

Robin Jarvis, assistant superintendent, said the current count is about 10,000. Officials said six schools are in the process of reopening by May 1.

Jarvis said she is confident that the total will be at least 22,000 by the time school starts in August.

I have to be for planning purposes, she said. I cant come up short.

Public school enrollment

East Baton Rouge Parish:

Feb. 1: 48,141

Oct. 1, 2004: 45,266

Ascension Parish:

Feb. 1: 17,562

Oct. 1, 2004:16,033

Livingston Parish:

Feb. 1: 22,403

Oct. 1, 2004: 21,443Source: Louisiana Department of Education

Source: Advocate; Baton Rouge, La.

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