S&P/Experian Credit Default Indices Indicate National Default Rates Increased for the Fourth Consecutive Month in December
NEW YORK, Jan. 17, 2012 /PRNewswire/ — Data through December 2011, released today by S&P Indices and Experian for the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices, a comprehensive measure of changes in consumer credit defaults, showed that most loan types saw an increase in default rates during the month. Bank card default rates were the only to decline, from 4.91% in November to 4.60% in December. Second mortgage default rates increased to 1.33% from 1.26%, auto loans default rates increased to 1.27% from 1.17% and first mortgage default rates increased to 2.19% from 2.17%. The increases in first and second mortgage and auto loans rates caused the national composite to rise from 2.22% to 2.24%, its highest rate since April 2011.
“Led by the mortgage markets, the second half of 2011 saw a slight reversal of the two-year downward trend in consumer credit default rates,” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee for S&P Indices. “First mortgage default rates rose for the fourth consecutive month, as did the composite. Since August, first mortgage default rates have risen from 1.92% to the 2.19%. The composite also rose those months, from 2.04% to 2.24%. The recent weakness seen in home prices is reflected in these data. Bank card default rates, on the other hand, were favorable, falling to 4.6% in December. This is more than a full percentage point below the 5.64% we saw as recently as July 2011.
“Looking at the five highlighted cities, three of the five had higher default rates. Miami had the largest increase, moving from 4.47% in November to 4.73% in December. Dallas rose from 1.38% to 1.56%, but remained the lowest among the five cities we follow. Los Angeles default rates have risen for four consecutive months. Given what we know about the mortgage markets, it is likely that these cities are seeing this recent weakness because their housing markets have still not stabilized.”
Four out of five major Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) reported in this release showed increases in default rates in December. Miami had the highest percentage points default rates increase among all MSAs from 4.47% in November to 4.73% in December. Dallas and Los Angeles increased to 1.56% and 2.54% in December, from 1.38% and 2.53% in November, respectively. Chicago remained flat at 2.84%. New York was the only MSA that saw a decrease in default rates, from 2.21% in November to 2.13% in December.
The table below summarizes the December 2011 results for the S&P/Experian Credit Default Indices. These data are not seasonally adjusted and are not subject to revision.
S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices National Indices ---------------- Index December 2011 November 2011 December 2010 Index Level Index Level Index Level --- ----------- ----------- ----------- Composite 2.24 2.22 3.01 --------- ---- ---- ---- First Mortgage 2.19 2.17 2.93 --------- ---- ---- ---- Second Mortgage 1.33 1.26 1.74 --------- ---- ---- ---- Bank Card 4.60 4.91 6.73 --------- ---- ---- ---- Auto Loans 1.27 1.17 1.69 ---------- ---- ---- ---- S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices Data through December 2011
The table below provides the S&P/Experian Consumer Default Composite Indices for the five MSAs:
Metropolitan December 2011 November 2011 December 2010 Statistical Area Index Level Index Level Index Level ---------------- ----------- ----------- ----------- New York 2.13 2.21 3.01 -------- ---- ---- ---- Chicago 2.84 2.84 3.14 ------- ---- ---- ---- Dallas 1.56 1.38 2.21 ------ ---- ---- ---- Los Angeles 2.54 2.53 3.07 ----------- ---- ---- ---- Miami 4.73 4.47 10.15 ----- ---- ---- ----- Source: S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices Data through December 2011
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Jointly developed by S&P Indices and Experian, the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices are published on the third Tuesday of each month at 9:00 am ET. They are constructed to accurately track the default experience of consumer balances in four key loan categories: auto, bankcard, first mortgage lien and second mortgage lien. The Indices are calculated based on data extracted from Experian’s consumer credit database. This database is populated with individual consumer loan and payment data submitted by lenders to Experian every month. Experian’s base of data contributors includes leading banks and mortgage companies, and covers approximately $11 trillion in outstanding loans sourced from 11,500 lenders.
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