The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Australia Declines
NEW YORK, June 19, 2012 /PRNewswire/ — The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Australia declined 1.4 percent in April to 122.9 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent decline in March, and a 0.3 percent decline in February.
At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Australia, a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.2 percent in April to 120.4 (2004 = 100), following a 0.4 percent increase in March, and a 0.2 percent increase in February.
The Conference Board LEI for Australia continued its declining trend which started in the last quarter of 2011, and as a result, its six-month change has remained negative since November of last year. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for Australia has been on a slightly rising trend, and its rate of growth has remained fairly stable so far. The recent weakening of the leading economic index and its components highlights rising risks to the expansion, especially from the exports and housing sectors. Although the economy should continue expanding, the rapid pace of its growth is not likely to continue in the near term.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Australia
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.
The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Australia include:
Yield Spread, 10 year minus Policy Rate
Share Prices, All Ordinaries
Money Supply, M3
Rural Goods Exports
Sales to Inventory Ratio
Gross Operating Surplus, Private Non-Financial Corporations
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About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is an independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org.
Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes 2012 6-month Feb Mar Apr Oct to Apr Leading Economic Index 124.8 r 124.6 p 122.9 p Percent Change -0.3 .0 -0.2 p -1.4 p -2.8 Diffusion 57.1 50.0 50.0 42.9 Coincident Economic Index 119.6 r 120.1 p 120.4 p Percent Change 0.2 r 0.4 p 0.2 p 1.2 Diffusion 75.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised Indexes equal 100 in 2004 Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved
SOURCE The Conference Board