The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China Increased in August
BEIJING, Sept. 24, 2012 /PRNewswire/ — The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China increased 1.7 percent in August to 240.4 (2004 = 100), following a 0.6 percent increase in July and a 0.1 percent increase in June. Four of the six components contributed positively to the index in August.
Says Andrew Polk, resident economist at The Conference Board China Center in Beijing: “The improvement in the China LEI in August raises expectations for a moderate rebound in growth, even as current economic conditions remain subdued. The LEI’s largest increase in seven months was primarily due to a rebound in real estate activity, with strong credit growth and an improvement in consumer expectations also adding to the uptick. The manufacturing and trade sectors continued to underperform. Despite the somewhat improved outlook, recent LEI trends suggest the rebound in real estate may be tenuous and uncertainty around credit-led growth remains a concern.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China, which measures current economic activity, increased 0.5 percent to 223.0 (2004 = 100), following a 0.5 percent increase in July and a 0.9 percent increase in June. All five components contributed positively to the index in August.
The Conference Board LEI for China aggregates six economic indicators that measure economic activity in China. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China was launched in May 2010. Plotted back to 1986, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of China. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China include:
Total Loans Issued by Financial Institutions (source: People’s Bank of China)
5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index: Raw Materials Supply Index (source: People’s Bank of China)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: PMI Supplier Deliveries (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Consumer Expectations Index (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Total Floor Space Started (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: Export Orders (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
For more information including full press release and technical notes:
To view The Conference Board calendar of 2012 indicator releases:
About The Conference Board
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SOURCE The Conference Board