The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China Increased Modestly in December
NEW YORK, Jan. 22, 2013 /PRNewswire/ — The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China increased 0.4 percent in December to 251.1 (2004 = 100), following a 1.1 percent increase in November and a 1.6 percent increase in October. Three of the six components contributed positively to the index in December.
“Growth in the LEI for China slowed in December. A decline in real estate activity, a drop in new export orders, and weak consumer confidence accounted for the slowing, while credit extension and improved conditions in the manufacturing supply chain offered only little support,” says Andrew Polk, resident economist at The Conference Board China Center in Beijing. “Growth in the CEI moderated as well, underscoring the notion that economic momentum may already be abating, and is unlikely to rebound much further in 2013. We expect China to grow at 7.5 percent this year, slightly down from the 7.8 percent increase in 2012.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China, which measures current economic activity, increased 0.7 percent in December to 232.1 (2004 = 100), following a 1.5 percent increase in November and a 1.0 percent increase in October. All five components contributed positively to the index in December.
The Conference Board LEI for China aggregates six economic indicators that measure economic activity in China. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China was launched in May 2010. Plotted back to 1986, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of China. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China include:
Total Loans Issued by Financial Institutions (source: People’s Bank of China)
5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index: Raw Materials Supply Index (source: People’s Bank of China)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: PMI Supplier Deliveries (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Consumer Expectations Index (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Total Floor Space Started (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: Export Orders (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
For more information including full press release and technical notes:
To view The Conference Board calendar of 2013 indicator releases:
This month’s release incorporates annual benchmark revisions to the composite economic indexes. These regular benchmark revisions bring the indexes up-to-date with revisions in the source data, but do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are incorporated when the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes and their month-over-month changes will no longer be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision. For more information, please visit our website at http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm or contact email@example.com.
About The Conference Board
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Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes 2012 6-month Oct Nov Dec Jun to Dec Leading Economic index (LEI) 247.3 p 250.0 p 251.1 p Percent Change 1.6 p 1.1 p 0.4 p 6.4 Diffusion 83.3 91.7 50.0 83.3 Coincident Economic Index (CEI) 226.9 230.4 232.1 p Percent Change 1.0 1.5 0.7 p 5.1 Diffusion 80.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised Indexes equal 100 in 2004 Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved
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