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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany Increases

March 22, 2013

BRUSSELS, March 22, 2013 /PRNewswire/ – The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany increased 0.3 percent in January to 103.2 (2004 = 100), following a 0.5 percent increase in December, and a 0.3 percent decline in November.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Germany, a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.4 percent in January to 107.1 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent decline in December, and a 0.1 percent increase in November.

The LEI for Germany increased for the second consecutive month, after having mostly declined between February and November 2012. As a result, the decline in its six-month growth rate continues to slow. Meanwhile, the CEI for Germany improved in January, after being on a down trend since July. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the German economy is likely to remain weak in the near term.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index(® )(LEI) for Germany
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index(®) for Germany include:

New Orders, Investment Goods
Yield Spread cumulated, 10 year minus 3 month
Change in Inventories
Gross Enterprise and Property Income
Stock Prices
New Orders, Residential Construction
Consumer Confidence Index

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=4

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

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                                          Summary Table of Composite Indexes

                                                  2012     2013   6-month
                                                  ----     ----

                                       Nov       Dec      Jan      Jul to
                                                                     Jan

    Leading
     Economic
     Index (LEI)                       102.4  r           102.9  p           103.2 p

       Percent
        Change                          -0.3  r             0.5  p             0.3 p -0.2 p

       Diffusion                        57.1               71.4               71.4   57.1

    Coincident
     Economic
     Index (CEI)                       106.9  r           106.7  r           107.1

       Percent
        Change                           0.1  r            -0.2  r             0.4   -0.3

       Diffusion                        50.0               50.0               87.5   50.0

    n.a. Not available    p Preliminary    r Revised

    Indexes equal 100 in 2004

    Source: The Conference Board      All Rights Reserved

SOURCE The Conference Board


Source: PR Newswire