Maduro Wins Handily in Sunday’s Election, Predicts Expert Latin American Pollster
Independent Latin American research firm sees no hope for opposition leader to upset reported public sentiment
NEW YORK, April 11, 2013 /PRNewswire/ — Leading up to Sunday’s presidential election in Venezuela, Marcela Berland of LatinInsights, an independent research firm focusing on Latin America, said today that there will be no surprises next Sunday.
“Based on my experience working on political campaigns and in Venezuela, I am certain that Nicolas Maduro will be the next president of Venezuela,” Berland said. “The results of October’s Presidential election coupled with the strong desire by a large number of voters to maintain Chavez memory, almost guarantee his victory.”
In addition, the majority of recent polls conducted in Venezuela show Maduro ahead in the race.
The following table shows the latest electoral polls:
ICS IVAD Hinterlaces GIS XXI Venezuelan Datamatica International Institute for Consulting Data Services Analysis -------- -------- Maduro 56.9% 53.3% 54% 55.3% 53.8 34.9 ------ ---- ---- --- ---- ---- ---- Capriles 41.1% 34.7% 37% 44.7% 30.8 39.7 -------- ---- ---- --- ---- ---- ----
While a majority of polls show Hugo Chavez’s successor Nicolas Maduro winning by as much as 20 points, one poll has Henrique Capriles leading by five points. That poll was widely reported by the media to justify a possible upset. Berland notes, however, that the telephone poll conducted by Datamatica excludes a vast number of poor voters who do not have access to a landline.
“The telephone poll showing opposition leader Capriles ahead is deeply flawed,” Berland said. “From my research, nothing indicates a significantly different outcome from the last election in October, when Chavez won handily by 10 points. Chavez’ death only strengthens Maduro’s position because the people who voted for him look to Maduro to continue in his footsteps.”
Following the death of Chavez on March 5, Maduro has consistently married his campaign with images, sounds and references of “el comandante” and insisted he communicates with the spirit of the departed leader.
“Although deceased, Chavez is more present than ever,” Berland said.
Berland also notes that while both campaigns are attacking each other, both claim that if elected they will continue Chavez’s principal social programs to assist the poor.
ABOUT MARCELA BERLAND
Marcela Berland is the founding President and CEO of LatinInsights. An expert in strategic communications and public affairs, she has conducted extensive research in Latin America and the Hispanic market for more than two decades. In Latin America, Berland has been a political strategist for Presidents Martin Torrijos of Panama, Alvaro Colom of Guatemala, Leonel Fernandez of the Dominican Republic, Miguel Angel Rodriguez of Costa Rica, Carlos Andres Perez of Venezuela, Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada of Bolivia, Jaime Paz Zamora of Bolivia and Rodrigo Borja of Ecuador. Her work has addressed issues of privatization, foreign investment, unemployment, corruption and political and economic reform.
Contact: Andrew Moesel, 1-212-725-2378, firstname.lastname@example.org