The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. Increased in February
BRUSSELS, April 12, 2013 /PRNewswire/ — The Conference Board Leading Economic Index(® )(LEI) for the U.K. increased 0.4 percent in February, after increasing 0.2 percent in January and declining 0.2 percent in December. Four of the seven components made positive contributions to the index this month. The index now stands at 102.4 (2004=100).
“Recent gains in the U.K. LEI signal the potential for a modest recovery in the U.K. economy later this year, especially if improvements in business confidence continue,” says Brian Schaitkin, Economist for Europe with The Conference Board. “However, financial turbulence in the Euro Area remains a major downside risk that could delay a turnaround in economic growth.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index(®) (CEI) for the U.K., a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.2 percent in February, after decreasing 0.1percent in January and remaining unchanged in December 2012. The index now stands at 104.2 (2004 = 100).
The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. aggregates seven economic indicators that measure activity in the U.K., each of which has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.
The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index(®) (LEI) for the U.K. include:
Order Book Volume (source: Confederation of British Industry)
Volume of Expected Output (source: Confederation of British Industry)
Consumer Confidence Indicator (source: European Commission)
FTSE All-Share Index (source: FTSE Group)
Yield Spread (source: Bank of England)
Productivity, Whole Economy (Office for National Statistics)
Total Gross Operating Surplus of Corporations (Office for National Statistics)
Plotted back to 1970, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the U.K. business cycles. The Conference Board currently produces leading economic indexes for the Euro Area and nine other countries, including Australia, China, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain and the U.S.
To view The Conference Board calendar of 2013 indicator releases: http://www.conference-board.org/data/
For more information: http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm
For full press release: http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=2
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is an independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org.
Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes 2012 2013 6-month ---- ---- Dec Jan Feb Aug to Feb Leading Economic Index (LEI) 101.8 p 102.0 p 102.4 p Percent Change -0.2 p 0.2 p 0.4 p -0.7 p Diffusion 42.9 57.1 57.1 42.9 Coincident Economic Index (CEI) 104.1 p 104.0 p 104.2 p Percent Change 0.0 p -0.1 p 0.2 p 0.3 p Diffusion 37.5 37.5 87.5 75.0 n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised Indexes equal 100 in 2004 Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved
SOURCE The Conference Board