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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany Increases

June 21, 2013

BRUSSELS, June 21, 2013 /PRNewswire/ — The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany increased 0.1 percent in April to 105.0 (2004 = 100), following a 0.4 percent increase in March, and a 0.5 percent increase in February.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Germany, a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.2 percent in April to 107.5 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in March, and no change in February.

With its fifth consecutive increase in April, the LEI for Germany has returned to its level of one year ago. Meanwhile, the strengths among the leading indicators have become very widespread. The CEI for Germany improved for the third time in the past four months, and its six-month growth rate moved further into positive territory. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the German economy is likely to continue expanding in the near term, though probably at a slow pace.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Germany include:

New Orders, Investment Goods
Yield Spread cumulated, 10 year minus 3 month
Change in Inventories
Gross Enterprise and Property Income
Stock Prices
New Orders, Residential Construction
Consumer Confidence Index

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=4

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm


                                         Summary Table of Composite Indexes

                                                                   2013  6-month
                                                                   ----

                                      Feb               Mar                Apr     Sep to Apr

     Leading
     Economic
     Index
     (LEI)                            104.5  r          104.9  p           105.0 p

     Percent
     Change                             0.5  r            0.4  p             0.1 p           2.1 p

    Diffusion                          71.4              85.7               71.4           100.0

     Coincident
     Economic
     Index
     (CEI)                            107.1             107.3              107.5

     Percent
     Change                             0.0               0.2                0.2             0.6

    Diffusion                          50.0              87.5               62.5           100.0

    n.a. Not available     p Preliminary     r Revised

    Indexes equal 100 in 2004

    Source: The Conference Board       All Rights Reserved

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Source: PR Newswire