The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for India Increased Slightly in December
MUMBAI, India, Jan. 15, 2014 /PRNewswire/ — The Conference Board Leading Economic Index(®)( )(LEI) for India increased 0.1 percent in December. The index stands at 175.9 (2004 = 100), following a 1.1 percent decline in November and a 1.5 percent increase in October. Five of the eight components contributed positively to the index in December.
Said Jing Sima, Economist at The Conference Board: “The small gain in the LEI in December was mainly driven by monetary policy and financial indicators, while exports fell in the last quarter. The persistent weakness of the LEI in the second half of 2013, coupled with stubbornly high inflation, suggests that India’s economy will continue to face downside risks in 2014.”
Said Bart van Ark, Chief Economist at The Conference Board: “We expect, at best, a moderate improvement from last year’s disappointing GDP performance. India still has the potential to return to a 5 to 6 percent annual rate of growth provided reforms in labor markets and tax regimes, which are driving productivity, get accelerated. The Conference Board’s latest productivity estimates, published earlier this week, project labor productivity growth in India at a meager 2.7 percent for 2014.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index(®)( )(CEI) for India, which measures current economic activity, increased 0.4 percent in November to 197.9 (2004 = 100), following a 1.1 percent decline in November and a 1.2 percent decline in October. Only one of the four components contributed positively to the index in December.
The Conference Board LEI for India aggregates eight economic indicators that measure economic activity in India. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index(® )(LEI) for India
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index(®) for India was launched in September 2013. Plotted back to April 1990, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of India. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, Brazil, China, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index(®) (LEI) for India include:
Interest Rate Spread (10-Year Government Bond minus 91-Day Treasury Bill) (RBI)
Stock Prices: SENSEX Average (Bombay Stock Exchange Limited)
Real effective exchange rate index, 36 countries (RBI)
Real Money Supply: M3 Bank Credit to Commercial Sector (RBI)
Merchandise Exports, f.o.b. (Ministry of Commerce and Industry)
Cargo Handled: Domestic and International (Airport Authority of India)
IP: Capital Goods (Central Statistical Organization)
PMI: Services Business Activity (HSBC/Markit)
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To view The Conference Board calendar of 2014 indicator releases:
This month’s release incorporates annual benchmark revisions to the composite economic indexes. These regular benchmark revisions bring the indexes up-to-date with revisions in the source data, but do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are incorporated when the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes and their month-over-month changes will no longer be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision. For more information, please visit our website at http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm or contact email@example.com.
About The Conference Board
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Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes 2013 6-month Oct Nov Dec Jun to Dec Leading Economic Index 177.7 175.7 p 175.9 p Percent Change 1.5 -1.1 p 0.1 p -1.3 Diffusion 75.0 43.8 50.0 62.5 Coincident Economic Index 199.3 197.1 197.9 p Percent Change -1.2 -1.1 0.4 p 0.1 Diffusion 25.0 75.0 25.0 25.0 n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised Indexes equal 100 in 2004 Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved
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