And the Winner Is … — CA Reviewer Isn’t Feeling Confident in His Predictions for Oscar Wins

By John Beifuss

“I have a competition in me. I want no one else to succeed.”

So says psycho oilman Daniel Plainview in “There Will Be Blood,” and maybe he has the right attitude.

But it’s hard for me to get ornery, even when it’s Me vs. the World during The Commercial Appeal’s annual “Beat Beifuss at the Oscars” contest.

Unlike Plainview, Anton Chigurh, Sweeney Todd, Jesse James and other of this year’s notable movie characters, I lack the killer instinct. If I had it, maybe I’d feel more confident about my 12th annual Academy Award predictions.

Last year, I was 8-2 in my picks in 10 Oscar categories, and only 10 of 1,574 readers beat me. The year before, I was 9-1, and only 3 of you beat me, from among 1,618 entrants.

This year, however, I’m pretty sure I won’t eat your lunch when it comes to Oscar. I may not even drink your milkshake.

When the 80th annual Academy Awards are doled out tonight at the Kodak Theatre in Hollywood, several surprises could occur. Few nominees seem like shoo-ins.

Take the Best Picture contest, for example. “No Country for Old Men” is considered the favorite, but will Academy voters pick another dark, violent film the year after honoring “The Departed”? And if they do, why not choose “There Will Be Blood,” another movie with a lot of support? If those two share a similar fan base, could they split their supporters, allowing “Atonement” to win? After all, “Atonement” – a more traditional Academy Award film, with its period costumes, literary heritage and British aura of “prestige” – won the Golden Globe for Best Drama and the British Academy award for Best Film, beating out “No Country” and “Blood” both times .

In any event, we’ll learn who wins tonight. And we’ll also learn how well you and I predicted the winners.

Monday morning, The Commercial Appeal’s crack “Beat Beifuss” team will tabulate the ballots to discover how many of you (if any) beat me. If 10 of you succeeded, you’ll each get 20 free Malco movie tickets. If more than 10 bested my score, we’ll draw for the 10 winners. Names of the Beifuss Beaters will be published on commercialappeal.com and in the M section on Tuesday.

Here are my predictions:

Best Picture: The nominees are “Atonement,”"Juno,”"Michael Clayton,”"No Country for Old Men” and “There Will Be Blood.”

My prediction: “No Country for Old Men.”

Best Actress: The nominees are Cate Blanchett for “Elizabeth: The Golden Age”; Julie Christie for “Away from Her”; Marion Cotillard for “La Vie en Rose”; Laura Linney for “The Savages”; and Ellen Page for “Juno.”

My prediction: If I were an Academy member, I’d vote for Cotillard. Although Julie Christie already has an Oscar – she’s a four-time Best Actress nominee who won the first time she was nominated, for “Darling” (1965) – this seems to be her year again.

Best Actor: The nominees are George Clooney for “Michael Clayton”; Daniel Day-Lewis for “There Will Be Blood”; Johnny Depp for “Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street”; Tommy Lee Jones for “In the Valley of Elah”; and Viggo Mortensen for “Eastern Promises.”

My prediction: Did I say there were no shoo-ins? Perhaps there’s one: The real shocker of the evening will be if Daniel Day-Lewis doesn’t earn his second Best Actor Oscar. (The first was for 1989′s “My Left Foot.”)

Best Supporting Actress: The nominees are Cate Blanchett for “I’m Not There”; Ruby Dee for “American Gangster”; Saoirse Ronan for “Atonement”; Amy Ryan for “Gone Baby Gone”; and Tilda Swinton for “Michael Clayton.”

My prediction: At one time, Ryan was winning award after award, from the film critics of Boston, Los Angeles, New York, the National Board of Review; then Blancett won the Golden Globe; then, Dee – a first-time Oscar nominee – won the Screen Actors Guild award. The 83- year-old Dee is the sentimental favorite, but I’ll stick with Cate Blanchett.

Best Supporting Actor: The nominees are Casey Affleck for “The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford”; Javier Bardem for “No Country for Old Men”; Hal Holbrook for “Into the Wild”; Philip Seymour Hoffman for “Charlie Wilson’s War”; and Tom Wilkinson for “Michael Clayton.”

My prediction: Another octogenariac first-time nominee, Hal Holbrook is sure to have some support. But pneumatic-cattle-bolt- toting Javier Bardem may be the year’s iconic movie character.

Best Director: The nominees are Paul Thomas Anderson for “There Will Be Blood”; Joel Coen and Ethan Coen for “No Country for Old Men”; Tony Gilroy for “Michael Clayton”; Jason Reitman for “Juno”; and Julian Schnabel for “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly.”

My prediction: Joel and Ethan Coen are full collaborators on their films, but the credits often don’t read that way; usually, Joel is credited as director, and Ethan is credited as producer. This time, they shared the director’s credit. Think they knew something? I think Joel and Ethan Coen also will share the Oscar.

Best Original Screenplay: The nominees are Brad Bird, “Ratatouille”; Diablo Cody, “Juno”; Tony Gilroy, “Michael Clayton”; Tamara Jenkins, “The Savages”; and Nancy Oliver, “Lars and the Real Girl.”

My prediction: Will her Oscar turn into a pumpkin or will the self-conscious stripper-Cinderella story of Diablo Cody achieve its fairy-tale ending? Gilroy could be a spoiler, but I think Diablo Cody will win.

Best Adapted Screenplay: The nominees are Paul Thomas Anderson, “There Will Be Blood”; Ethan and Joel Coen, “No Country for Old Men”; Christopher Hampton, “Atonement”; Ronald Harwood, “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly”; and Sarah Polley, “Away from Her.”

My prediction: Again, Joel and Ethan Coen.

Best Animated Film: The nominees are “Persepolis”; “Ratatouille”; and “Surf’s Up.”

My prediction: Have enough voters actually seen the critically acclaimed “Persepolis” for it to pull an upset? Maybe, but I’ll stick with “Ratatouille.”

Best Original Song: The nominees are “Falling Slowly” from “Once”; “Happy Working Song” from “Enchanted”; “Raise It Up” from “August Rush”; “So Close” from “Enchanted”; and “That’s How You Know” from “Enchanted.”

My prediction: Frankly, I don’t have a clue. I actually remember the “Happy Working Song” from “Enchanted” (that’s the one Amy Adams sings to a helpful army of flies, rats and other vermin), so maybe I should pick it; on the other hand, it seems possible the three “Enchanted” songs will split their votes. So I’ll go with “Falling Slowly.”

-John Beifuss: 529-2394

Originally published by John Beifuss beifuss@commercialappeal.com .

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