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The Conference Board(R) Mexico Business Cycle Indicators(SM) The Conference Board Leading Economic Index(TM) (LEI) for Mexico and Related Composite Economic Indexes for January 2009

Posted on: Friday, 27 March 2009, 11:00 CDT

NEW YORK, March 27 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index(TM) (LEI) for Mexico declined 1.3 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index(TM) (CEI) for Mexico decreased 1.7 percent in January.

• The Conference Board LEI for Mexico declined sharply in January, its sixth consecutive decrease, due to large negative contributions from stock prices, the real exchange rate, the construction component of industrial production, and net insufficient inventories. The oil price component made a positive contribution to the index for the first time since July 2008. During the previous six months, the leading economic index declined 17.2 percent (a -31.4 percent annual rate), well below the 5.0 percent rate of growth (a 10.3 percent annual rate) between January and July 2008. In addition, the weaknesses among the leading indicators have remained very widespread, with none of the six components increasing over the past six months.
• The Conference Board CEI for Mexico, a measure of current economic activity, declined for the seventh consecutive month in January, recording its largest monthly decline since early 1997. None of the three components that comprise the coincident economic index advanced in January. Between July 2008 and January 2009, the coincident economic index declined by 4.5 percent (a -8.9 percent annual rate), below the 0.2 percent increase (a 0.4 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. In addition, the weaknesses among the coincident indicators have remained very widespread, with none of the components increasing over the past six months. Meanwhile, real GDP declined at an average annual rate of 4.5 percent in the second half of 2008, including a -10.3 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter, its sharpest decline since the 1994-95 recession.
• The Conference Board LEI for Mexico has declined precipitously since its most recent peak in April 2008, falling by 17.5 percent. Furthermore, the pace of this decline has continued to accelerate in recent months. At the same time, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico has been falling since June 2008, and its decrease over the past six months is the largest since 1995. Taken together, the recent behavior of the composite economic indexes suggests that economic activity should continue contracting in the near term, and that risks for further deterioration remain very high.

LEADING INDICATORS. Two of the six components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Mexico increased in January. The positive contributors to the index--from the largest positive contributor to the smallest one--are the US refiners' acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil, and the (inverted) federal funds rate. The negative contributors - beginning with the largest negative contributor - are stock prices, the (inverted) real exchange rate, the industrial production construction component, and the net insufficient inventories component.

With the 1.3 percent decrease in January, The Conference Board LEI for Mexico now stands at 100.4 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index declined 3.1 percent in December and declined 4.7 percent in November. During the six-month span through January, the index decreased 17.2 percent, with none of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 0.0 percent).

*See notes under data availability.

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. None of the three components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Mexico increased in January. Industrial production, number of people employed (measured by total IMSS beneficiaries), and retail sales declined.

With the decrease of 1.7 percent in January, The Conference Board CEI for Mexico now stands at 107.4 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 1.5 percent in December and decreased 0.7 percent in November. During the six-month span through January, the index decreased 4.5 percent, with none of the three components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 0.0 percent).

*See notes under data availability.

DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used by The Conference Board to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index(TM) (LEI) for Mexico and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index(TM) (CEI) for Mexico reported in this release are those available "as of" 10 A.M. March 24, 2009. Some series are estimated as noted below.

NOTES: With this month's release, none of the components in The Conference Board LEI for Mexico or The Conference Board CEI for Mexico were based on our estimates.

SOURCE The Conference Board

Source: PR Newswire

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