Despite Dramatic Changes, the Crohn’s Disease Drug Market Will Experience Only Moderate Growth Through 2019
BURLINGTON, Mass., Sept. 29 /PRNewswire/ — Decision Resources, one of the world’s leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues finds that the Crohn’s disease drug market will experience moderate growth over the next decade, increasing from $3.2 billion in 2009 to $4.2 billion in 2019 in the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom and Japan. This modest growth rate masks dramatic changes as market growth from newer and emerging biologic agents will outpace the decline in sales of older, established agents, which face increasing generics competition and declining use.
The Pharmacor 2010 findings from the topic entitled Crohn’s Disease reveal that sales of biologic agents to treat the disease are concentrated as tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha) inhibitors — namely Centocor Ortho Biotech/Merck/Mitsubishi Tanabe’s Remicade and Abbott/Eisai’s Humira — dominated the Crohn’s disease market in 2009, capturing just over three-quarters of major-market sales. Owing to increasing physician familiarity with these agents and continuing emergence of favorable postmarketing clinical trial data, sales of TNF-alpha inhibitors will continue to grow, reaching approximately $2.8 billion in 2019.
The Pharmacor 2010 findings also reveal that the 2008 U.S. launches of Biogen Idec/Elan’s Tysabri (a cell adhesion molecule inhibitor) and UCB/Otsuka’s TNF-alpha inhibitor Cimzia had a negligible impact on the Crohn’s disease market. Through 2019, both agents will continue to be relegated to second- or later-line biological therapy, behind Remicade and Humira.
“In 2009, sales of maintenance therapies for Crohn’s disease greatly exceeded sales of acute therapies,” said Decision Resources Analyst Kathryn Benton. “We expect growth in the market will be largely attributable to increasing sales of maintenance therapies and that sales of acute therapies will remain essentially flat through 2019. However, no current therapy is completely effective in maintaining remission of Crohn’s disease and, as a result, significant opportunity remains for more-effective emerging therapies in the maintenance space.”
Beginning in 2013, several therapies with novel mechanisms of action are expected to launch for Crohn’s disease, including Millennium Pharmaceuticals’ vedolizumab, Centocor Ortho Biotech/Janssen-Cilag’s Stelara, Abbott’s briakinumab and ChemoCentryx/GlaxoSmithKline’s Traficet-EN.
“However, we forecast that none of these agents will rival the efficacy or the market share of the TNF-alpha inhibitors,” Ms. Benton said.
About Pharmacor 2010
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