Reducing Risk of Recurrence and a Stabilization in Incidence of Renal Cell Carcinoma Will Limit Growth of Drug-Treatment Opportunities for Advanced Disease
BURLINGTON, Mass., Nov. 23, 2010 /PRNewswire/ — Decision Resources, one of the world’s leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that projected improvements in recurrence-free survival and a discontinuation of the historically observed increases in the incidence rate of renal cell carcinoma (RCC) will limit growth of new drug-treatment opportunities for advanced disease in RCC. According to analysis of Pharmacor Patient Flow Model Renal Cell Carcinoma, the number of cases eligible for drug-treatment of advanced disease will be limited to 20 percent growth between 2009 to 2024.
“The historical increase in incidence of RCC observed in many pharmaceutical markets over the last 15 years will continue to drive growth in the number of new drug-treatment opportunities for advanced disease as cases of localized disease diagnosed in previous years recur, although this effect will only last until 2013,” said Decision Resources Principal Epidemiologist Michael Hughes, Ph.D. “After 2013 the number of recurrent cases will stabilize as the risk of RCC levels off and the effect of population aging is counterbalanced by a reduced risk of recurrence from localized disease.”
Population aging will increase the number of newly diagnosed incident cases by 24 percent from 2009 to 2024, although the number of recurrent cases per year will increase by only 13 percent over the same period as recurrence risk from localized disease progressively decreases over time.
The findings are derived from Decision Resources’ Pharmacor Patient Flow Models which utilize Decision Resources proprietary suite of epidemiological models. With Pharmacor Patient Flow Models, users can build their own oncology patient flow model and/or validate the assumptions behind their own internal models. This interactive tool allows users to track changing disease and population dynamics over a 15-year annualized forecast, improve their modeling accuracy with clearly depicted methods and transparent assumptions and identify untapped market potential within lines of therapy. Pharmacor Patient Flow Models is available as an add-on product to the Pharmacor advisory service.
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