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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China Increased Modestly in January

March 15, 2011

BEIJING, March 15, 2011 /PRNewswire/ — The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China increased 0.3 percent in January to 155.0 (2004 = 100), following a 0.5 percent decline in December and a 0.5 percent increase in November. Two of the six components contributed positively to the index in January.

Says The Conference Board China Center resident economist Bill Adams: “The LEI’s modest increase in January, following a large decline in December, points to slower economic expansion in coming months. In January, consumer expectations continued to fall, probably related to rising inflation. Weakening consumer sentiment, tighter credit, and lower export orders were offset by a large rebound in construction activity.”

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China, which measures current economic activity, increased 1.4 percent in January to 200.8 (2004 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in December and a 1.0 percent increase in November. Four of the five components contributed positively to the index in January.

The Conference Board LEI for China aggregates six economic indicators that measure economic activity in China. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China was launched in May 2010. Plotted back to 1986, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of China.

The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China include:


    Total Loans Issued by Financial Institutions (source: People's Bank of
     China)
    5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index: Raw Materials Supply Index
     (source: People's Bank of China)
    NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: PMI Supplier Deliveries (source:
     National Bureau of Statistics) Consumer Expectations Index (source:
     National Bureau of Statistics)
    Total Floor Space Started (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
    NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: Export Orders (source: National Bureau
     of Statistics)

For more information including full press release and technical notes: http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=11

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2011 indicator releases: http://www.conference-board.org/data/

* The series in The Conference Board LEI for China that is based on our estimates is the 5000 industry enterprises diffusion index: raw materials supply index. The series in The Conference Board CEI for China that is based on our estimates is manufacturing employment.

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501(c)(3) tax-exempt status in the United States. For additional information about The Conference Board and how it can meet your needs, visit our website at www.conference-board.org.


             Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes

                                           2010            6-month
                                                          Jul to
                               Nov      Dec       Jan       Jan

    Leading Economic index
     (LEI)                   155.4 p  154.6 p   155.0 p
    Percent Change             0.5 p   -0.5 p     0.3 p       2.4
    Diffusion                   83.3     50.0      33.3      66.7

    Coincident Economic
     Index (CEI)             198.0 r  198.1 p   200.8 p
    Percent Change               1.0    0.1 p     1.4 p       4.9
    Diffusion                   80.0     80.0      80.0     100.0

    n.a. Not available    p Preliminary    r Revised
    Indexes equal 100 in 2004
    Source: The Conference Board       All Rights Reserved

THESE DATA ARE FOR NEWS ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING, OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.


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