Rudy Giuliani Only One of 11 Possible Republican Candidates Who Could Beat President Obama
NEW YORK, March 28, 2011 /PRNewswire/ — The list of candidates continues to fluctuate and one year from now the Republican nominee will most likely be set. But, at this point, there is clearly no front-runner in the race for that nomination. Among all adults, assuming these candidates were in the Republican primary election, 10% would each vote for Mitt Romney and Donald Trump, while just under that would vote for Mike Huckabee (8%), Rudy Giuliani (8%) and Sarah Palin (7%). Five percent or less would vote for Newt Gingrich (5%), Tim Pawlenty (2%), Michele Bachmann (2%), Mitch Daniels (2%), Rick Santorum (1%) and Haley Barbour (less than 1%). Almost half of all Americans (45%) are not at all sure who they would vote for in the Republican primary.
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These are some of the results of The Harris Poll of 2,379 adults surveyed online between March 7 and 14, 2011 by Harris Interactive.
Looking at just Republicans, the order is a little different and there is also a little less uncertainty. Mike Huckabee is on top of the Republicans’ list at 15% followed by Mitt Romney at 13% and Sarah Palin at 12%. Just under one in ten Republicans would vote for Newt Gingrich (9%), followed by Donald Trump (8%), and Rudy Giuliani (7%). Rounding out the list 3% of Republicans would each vote for Tim Pawlenty and Michele Bachmann, 2% for Rick Santorum and Mitch Daniels and less than 1% for Haley Barbour; one-quarter of Republicans (26%) are not at all sure who they would vote for in the Republican primary.
Among Independents, the list changes again as Donald Trump moves to the top of who Independents would vote for in a Republican primary (13%) followed by Mitt Romney (11%), Rudy Giuliani (9%) and Mike Huckabee (8%). Two in five Independents (41%) are not at all sure.
Republican candidates versus President Obama
Taking the same list of 11 potential Republican nominees and pitting them against President Obama shows some interesting results. While he only garners 8% of overall adults and just 7% of Republicans in the primary field, Rudy Giuliani is the only candidate on the list who edges out President Obama in a head to head match-up, 51% to 49%. The next two Republicans make it a close race but President Obama edges out Mitt Romney (51% to 49%) and Mike Huckabee (52% to 48%).
Among the next tier of candidates, it’s anywhere from a 10 point margin (Trump 45%/Obama 55%) to 12 point margin (Gingrich, Daniels and Pawlenty 44% versus Obama 56%) to a 14 point margin (Santorum 43%/Obama 57%). The third tier of candidates would be a relief for the current White House as President Obama is ahead by 16 points on Sarah Palin (58% vs. 42%) and 18 points ahead of Haley Barbour and Michele Bachmann (59% vs. 41%).
So What?
Ten months is a lifetime in politics and that’s how long it is until the first votes are cast in the Iowa caucuses. At this point, the list of potential Republicans will change as the time gets closer and the choruses of “will he/she run” will continue through the summer. But, one thing for all candidates to keep in mind is that when adults who would vote for at least one Republican were asked how concerned they are about the positions and policies of the potential Republican candidates, more than two-thirds (69%) said they are concerned and that number is the same among just Republicans. Among Independents who would vote for at least one Republican, three-quarters are concerned (76%). Republican candidates need to keep in mind that how they act during the primaries is being watched by these Independent voters — a bloc they need if they want to win in November 2012.
TABLE 1
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY ELECTION
"If you were voting in the Republican primary election and these were
the candidates, who would you vote for?"
Base: All adults
Total Party ID
Rep. Dem. Ind.
% % % %
Mitt Romney 10 13 9 11
Donald Trump 10 8 10 13
Mike Huckabee 8 15 5 8
Rudy Giuliani 8 7 9 9
Sarah Palin 7 12 4 5
Newt Gingrich 5 9 1 5
Tim Pawlenty 2 3 2 2
Michele
Bachmann 2 3 2 2
Mitch Daniels 2 2 1 3
Rick Santorum 1 2 * *
Haley Barbour * * * 1
Not at all sure 45 26 58 41
Philosophy Mod. Tea
Ind. Party
Support
Cons. Mod. Lib.
% % % % %
Mitt Romney 10 11 8 14 13
Donald Trump 9 11 9 14 10
Mike Huckabee 15 6 4 5 15
Rudy Giuliani 7 8 12 9 7
Sarah Palin 12 5 4 2 12
Newt Gingrich 10 3 2 3 10
Tim Pawlenty 2 3 1 4 3
Michele
Bachmann 3 2 2 2 3
Mitch Daniels 3 1 2 2 2
Rick Santorum * 1 - * 1
Haley Barbour 1 * * * 1
Not at all sure 29 51 55 44 22
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; * indicates
less than .05%
TABLE 2A
2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE OR PRESIDENT OBAMA
"Looking at the list below, assuming each person listed is the
Republican nominee running against
President Obama in the 2012 presidential election, who would you vote
for?"
Base: All adults
Would vote for
President Obama The Republican nominee
% %
Michele
Bachmann 59 41
Haley Barbour 59 41
Sarah Palin 58 42
Rick Santorum 57 43
Tim Pawlenty 56 44
Mitch Daniels 56 44
Newt Gingrich 56 44
Donald Trump 55 45
Mike Huckabee 52 48
Mitt Romney 51 49
Rudy Giuliani 49 51
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
TABLE 2B
2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE OR
PRESIDENT OBAMA
"Looking at the list below, assuming each person listed is the
Republican nominee running
against President Obama in the 2012 presidential election,
who would you vote for?"
Summary of those who would vote for the Republican nominee
Base: All adults
Total Party ID
Rep. Dem. Ind.
% % % %
Rudy Giuliani 51 87 15 55
Mitt Romney 49 85 14 52
Mike Huckabee 48 83 13 52
Donald Trump 45 73 14 48
Newt Gingrich 44 81 9 46
Mitch Daniels 44 80 10 46
Tim Pawlenty 44 79 9 47
Rick Santorum 43 79 9 46
Sarah Palin 42 75 10 43
Haley Barbour 41 74 10 44
Michele
Bachmann 41 72 10 44
Philosophy Mod. Tea
Ind. Party
Support
Cons. Mod. Lib.
% % % % %
Rudy Giuliani 81 44 15 45 87
Mitt Romney 81 42 10 47 87
Mike Huckabee 80 41 10 45 87
Donald Trump 74 38 12 41 78
Newt Gingrich 79 35 8 36 85
Mitch Daniels 77 36 7 37 82
Tim Pawlenty 78 35 7 39 82
Rick Santorum 76 35 7 37 81
Sarah Palin 74 34 8 34 80
Haley Barbour 74 33 7 33 79
Michele
Bachmann 73 33 10 34 77
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
TABLE 3
CONCERN ABOUT THE POLICIES AND POSITIONS OF REPUBLICAN NOMINEES
"How concerned are you about the positions and policies of the
various potential Republican nominees?"
Base: Adults who would vote for at least one Republican
Total Party ID
Rep. Dem. Ind.
% % % %
Concerned (NET) 69 69 66 76
Very concerned 30 32 33 32
Somewhat
concerned 39 38 33 44
Not concerned
(NET) 21 25 16 17
Not very
concerned 15 19 11 12
Not at all
concerned 6 6 5 5
Not at all sure 10 5 18 7
Philosophy Mod. Tea
Ind. Party
Support
Cons. Mod. Lib.
% % % % %
Concerned (NET) 67 70 79 77 73
Very concerned 31 28 43 31 32
Somewhat
concerned 36 42 35 46 41
Not concerned
(NET) 26 16 12 15 23
Not very
concerned 18 12 10 12 17
Not at all
concerned 8 4 2 3 7
Not at all sure 6 14 9 8 3
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
Methodology
This Harris Poll was conducted online within the United States between March 7 to 14, 2011 among 2,379 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online.
All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words “margin of error” as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.
Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.
These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
The results of this Harris Poll may not be used in advertising, marketing or promotion without the prior written permission of Harris Interactive.
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Q1225, 1227, 1230
The Harris Poll® #41, March 28, 2011
By Regina A. Corso, SVP, Harris Poll, Public Relations and Youth Research, Harris Interactive
About Harris Interactive
Harris Interactive is one of the world’s leading custom market research firms, leveraging research, technology, and business acumen to transform relevant insight into actionable foresight. Known widely for the Harris Poll and for pioneering innovative research methodologies, Harris offers expertise in a wide range of industries including healthcare, technology, public affairs, energy, telecommunications, financial services, insurance, media, retail, restaurant, and consumer package goods. Serving clients in over 215 countries and territories through our North American, European, and Asian offices and a network of independent market research firms, Harris specializes in delivering research solutions that help us — and our clients — stay ahead of what’s next. For more information, please visit www.harrisinteractive.com.
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SOURCE Harris Interactive