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Saxo Bank Releases Q2 Outlook for 2011: To QE or Not to QE?

April 14, 2011

HELLERUP, Denmark, April 14, 2011 /PRNewswire/ — Saxo Bank, the online
trading and investment specialist, today released its second quarter Outlook,
a short analysis examining the global economic outlook for the forthcoming
quarter.

Economic growth has been strong across the board for the most part this
year, but that is not an all-clear for loading up in risky assets. Saxo Bank
foresees increased volatility in the second quarter as uprisings in the
Middle East, a wounded Japanese economy, and the expectation of the end of
quantitative easing in the US are to bring more “two-way” action.

The report assesses that whether as a result of a strong economy or a
side effect of loose central bank monetary policy, commodities remained
elevated throughout the first quarter – particularly in the form of the Fed’s
QE2 and its implications for the US dollar. With the inflation cat clearly
out of the bag, Saxo Bank stresses that policy-makers have been busy
ratcheting higher the expectations for a normalisation of policy rates.

Saxo Bank’s analysts believe the question that begs to be answered is to
what degree markets have been propped up by the Fed’s QE2 programme, and how
markets will deal with the prospect of its cessation at the end of the
quarter.

Steen Jakobsen, Chief Economist at Saxo Bank, comments: “We are momentum
bullish for stocks seeing potential for 1385/1400 in the S&P, but are
sceptical as our bottom analysis now shows strains on input costs and the
ability to keep wages low.

“We were caught slightly off guard by the European Central Bank’s hawkish
rhetoric, which seems more political than anything else, given the current
low core inflation rate in the Euro area. However, for the world’s largest
economies, we maintain that any hikes are a step towards the normalisation of
a loose monetary policy rather than a new tightening rate cycle. Instead, we
ask ourselves whether all roads lead to QE3. It seems as if the Fed is only
waiting for renewed economic weakness to have sufficient arguments in favour
of further monetary easing. And if we are right about the gradual move to
QE3, then we expect gold, silver, and metals overall to continue to shine.”

The Quarterly Outlook Q2 2011 reflects on the following areas and the
full report is available from Saxo Bank:
http://www.saxobank.com/en/about-us/press/pages/press-and-media.aspx

    - Economics
    - Policy rates in 2011
    - Critical challenges for the major currencies
    - FX options
    - Equities
    - Commodities

SOURCE Saxo Bank


Source: newswire



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