The Conference Board Leading Economic IndexÂ® for China Increased Again in February
NEW YORK, April 19, 2011 /PRNewswire/ — The Conference Board Leading Economic IndexÃ‚® (LEI) for China increased 0.3 percent in February to 155.3 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in January and a 0.5 percent decline in December. Three of the six components contributed positively to the index in February.
Says The Conference Board China Center resident economist Bill Adams: “The LEI for China slowed noticeably in February compared to late 2010, pointing to tighter macroeconomic policies taking effect and moderating economic activity in 2011. Scarcer credit and a softening real estate market will create a drag on investment activity in coming months. Consumer expectations have reached their lowest level since April 2009 – probably a reaction to intensifying inflation, raising concerns over spending growth. Manufacturing employment also showed some signs of weakness in the first two months of the year.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic IndexÃ‚® (CEI) for China, which measures current economic activity, increased 0.4 percent in February to 197.1 (2004 = 100), following a 0.5 percent increase in January and a 0.9 percent decrease in December. Three of the five components contributed positively to the index in February.
The Conference Board LEI for China aggregates six economic indicators that measure economic activity in China. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic IndexÃ‚® (LEI) for China
The Conference Board Leading Economic IndexÃ‚® for China was launched in May 2010. Plotted back to 1986, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of China.
The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic IndexÃ‚® (LEI) for China include:
Total Loans Issued by Financial Institutions (source: People’s Bank of China)
5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index: Raw Materials Supply Index (source: People’s Bank of China)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: PMI Supplier Deliveries (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Consumer Expectations Index (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Total Floor Space Started (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: Export Orders (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
For more information including full press release and technical notes:
To view The Conference Board calendar of 2011 indicator releases:
* Due to a delay in the release of “The PBoC 5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index: Raw Materials Supply Index,” this series in The Conference Board LEI for China was estimated for September 2010 and on. There are no series in The Conference Board CEI for China that is based on our estimates.
About The Conference Board
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Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes
2011 6-month Dec Jan Feb Aug to Feb Leading Economic index (LEI) 154.6 p 154.9 p 155.3 p Percent Change -0.5 p 0.2 p 0.3 p 1.8 Diffusion 50.0 33.3 50.0 50.0 Coincident Economic Index (CEI) 195.4 r 196.4 r 197.1 Percent Change -0.9 r 0.5 r 0.4 1.7 Diffusion 60.0 60.0 60.0 80.0
n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised Indexes equal 100 in 2004 Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved
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