Mitt Romney Leads Republican Pack, but One-Quarter of Republicans Not Sure Who Their Primary Pick Would Be
NEW YORK, May 23, 2011 /PRNewswire/ — The 2012 Republican primary field is an ever changing and fluid one. The first primary is less than ten months away and there is clearly still no front-runner. Some who could have claimed that mantle, such as Mike Huckabee, have made the decision to not move forward with a run this year. Others who were grabbing a lot of the spotlight thanks to media attention, such as Donald Trump, also have decided not to run. Among Republicans, Mitt Romney is the “front runner” right now with 14% of his party saying they would vote for him in the primary followed by Mike Huckabee (12%) and Newt Gingrich (10%). Even among Republicans, no other candidate garners over 8% of the vote and one-quarter (23%) are not at all sure.
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These are some of the results of The Harris Poll of 2,184 adults surveyed online between May 9 and 16, 2011 by Harris Interactive.
Three in ten Conservatives (29%) are also not at all sure who they would vote for, while Romney and Huckabee each get 12% of the Conservative vote. No other potential Republican candidate gets above 9%. Among Independents, a different person leads the pack – Ron Paul garners 10% of Independents’ votes in the GOP primary followed by Mitt Romney (9%); two in four Independents (39%) are not at all sure who they would vote for in the Republican primary. Among those who support the Tea Party, 12% would vote for Mitt Romney and 11% for Mike Huckabee while 22% are not at all sure.
On the flip side, there are certain possible Republican candidates who people would never vote for in a primary. It may be a good thing he decided not to run as two in four Republicans say they would never vote for Donald Trump (39%). Three in ten Republicans would never vote for Sarah Palin, while almost one-quarter (22%) would never vote for Ron Paul. Just under one in five Republicans say they would never vote for Michele Bachmann (18%), Newt Gingrich (18%) and Jon Huntsman (17%). Among Independents, three in five say they would never vote for Sarah Palin (60%) and Donald Trump (59%), while two in five would never vote for Newt Gingrich (40%).
Republicans versus President Obama
Looking at possible Republican candidates, two do well against President Obama but only one possible Republican candidate would beat the President right now. In a head to head match up, 51% of Americans would vote for Rudy Giuliani while 49% would vote to re-elect President Obama. Mitt Romney is on the other side of those numbers as 49% would vote for the former Massachusetts governor while 51% would vote to re-elect the President. Among other declared or potential Republican candidates, Ron Paul does next best (45% vs. 55% for the President), then Newt Gingrich (44% vs. 56%), Mitch Daniels (43% vs. 57%), Gary Johnson (43% vs. 57%), and Rick Santorum (43% vs. 57%). Michele Bachmann, Tim Pawlenty and Sarah Palin would each get 42% of the vote and Herman Cain, Jon Huntsman and Donald Trump would each get 41%.
So What?
Almost half of Americans say they are not likely to vote to re-elect President Obama if the election were held today. However, it is clear that among his possible challengers, there is clearly no one candidate who is ahead of the others. While voters may be slightly disenchanted with the President right now, if at least a few Republicans fail to pull ahead of the pack soon, there may not be enough time for them to make the case why they are the better candidate for next November. At least the media is done with the Donald and his potential run.
TABLE 1
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY ELECTION
"If you were voting in the Republican primary election and these were
the candidates, who would you vote for?"
Base: All adults
Total Total
March May
2011 2011 Party ID
Rep. Dem. Ind.
% % % % %
Mitt Romney 10 10 14 9 9
Mike Huckabee 8 8 12 4 8
Rudy Giuliani 8 8 7 7 8
Donald Trump 10 7 8 6 8
Ron Paul NA 6 4 7 10
Sarah Palin 7 5 8 4 3
Newt Gingrich 5 4 10 1 3
Herman Cain NA 2 3 1 3
Mitch Daniels 2 2 5 1 2
Tim Pawlenty 2 2 2 1 3
Michele Bachmann 2 2 2 1 1
Jon Huntsman, Jr. NA 1 1 1 1
Gary Johnson NA 1 * 1 2
Rick Santorum 1 * * * 1
Not at all sure 45 42 23 56 39
Tea
Philosophy Party
Support
Cons. Mod. Lib.
% % % %
Mitt Romney 12 10 6 12
Mike Huckabee 12 6 4 11
Rudy Giuliani 4 9 8 7
Donald Trump 7 7 7 7
Ron Paul 6 5 9 7
Sarah Palin 7 3 4 7
Newt Gingrich 9 2 1 9
Herman Cain 5 * 2 5
Mitch Daniels 3 2 2 5
Tim Pawlenty 3 2 1 4
Michele Bachmann 3 1 2 3
Jon Huntsman, Jr. * 1 3 1
Gary Johnson * 1 1 1
Rick Santorum * * * *
Not at all sure 29 49 48 22
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; * indicates
less than .05%; NA indicates it was not asked in that poll.
TABLE 2A
2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE OR PRESIDENT OBAMA
"Looking at the list below, assuming each person listed is the
Republican nominee running against President Obama in the 2012
presidential election, who would you vote for?"
Base: All adults
Would vote for
The
President Republican
Obama nominee
% %
Donald Trump 59 41
Jon Huntsman, Jr. 59 41
Herman Cain 59 41
Sarah Palin 58 42
Tim Pawlenty 58 42
Michele Bachmann 58 42
Rick Santorum 57 43
Gary Johnson 57 43
Mitch Daniels 57 43
Newt Gingrich 56 44
Ron Paul 55 45
Mike Huckabee 52 48
Mitt Romney 51 49
Rudy Giuliani 49 51
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
TABLE 2B
2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE OR PRESIDENT OBAMA
"Looking at the list below, assuming each person listed is the
Republican nominee running against President Obama in the 2012
presidential election, who would you vote for?"
Summary of those who would vote for the Republican nominee
Base: All adults
Total Total
March May
2011 2011 Party ID
Rep. Dem. Ind.
% % % % %
Rudy Giuliani 51 51 86 19 54
Mitt Romney 49 49 87 16 52
Mike Huckabee 48 48 87 15 49
Ron Paul NA 45 78 14 49
Newt Gingrich 44 44 82 11 45
Mitch Daniels 44 43 78 11 45
Gary Johnson NA 43 78 11 44
Rick Santorum 43 43 78 12 43
Michele Bachmann 41 42 78 10 43
Tim Pawlenty 44 42 78 12 42
Sarah Palin 42 42 78 13 38
Herman Cain NA 41 78 11 40
Jon Huntsman,
Jr. NA 41 77 11 41
Donald Trump 45 41 72 15 39
Tea
Party
Philosophy Support
Cons. Mod. Lib.
% % % %
Rudy Giuliani 81 45 15 86
Mitt Romney 82 42 9 85
Mike Huckabee 80 40 14 85
Ron Paul 78 36 10 79
Newt Gingrich 77 34 12 81
Mitch Daniels 74 34 12 81
Gary Johnson 76 32 12 78
Rick Santorum 75 33 10 79
Michele Bachmann 75 32 12 78
Tim Pawlenty 76 32 10 77
Sarah Palin 77 30 11 76
Herman Cain 75 31 10 77
Jon Huntsman,
Jr. 74 32 9 76
Donald Trump 69 32 13 73
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; NA
indicates it was not asked in that poll.
TABLE 3
NEVER VOTE FOR
"Assuming these were candidates in the 2012 presidential election,
who would you never vote for?"
Base: All adults
Total
May
2011 Party ID
Rep. Dem. Ind.
% % % %
Donald Trump 58 39 74 59
Sarah Palin 57 30 78 60
Newt Gingrich 41 18 61 40
Michele Bachmann 34 18 52 31
Ron Paul 31 22 43 26
Rick Santorum 27 15 42 24
Herman Cain 26 16 37 25
Rudy Giuliani 26 13 35 26
Mike Huckabee 25 9 42 21
Jon Huntsman, Jr. 25 17 34 21
Gary Johnson 25 16 36 21
Tim Pawlenty 24 12 38 19
Mitch Daniels 24 14 34 21
Mitt Romney 23 9 38 19
Tea
Party
Philosophy Support
Cons. Mod. Lib.
% % % %
Donald Trump 49 59 74 40
Sarah Palin 32 64 82 28
Newt Gingrich 22 43 68 23
Michele Bachmann 18 37 58 20
Ron Paul 20 32 48 21
Rick Santorum 16 26 52 16
Herman Cain 18 26 42 19
Rudy Giuliani 19 22 47 17
Mike Huckabee 10 27 49 12
Jon Huntsman, Jr. 17 24 41 20
Gary Johnson 17 25 40 19
Tim Pawlenty 13 25 43 15
Mitch Daniels 15 24 40 17
Mitt Romney 11 24 43 12
Note: Multiple responses accepted
Methodology
This Harris Poll was conducted online within the United States between May 9 to 16, 2011 among 2,184 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online.
All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words “margin of error” as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.
Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.
These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
The results of this Harris Poll may not be used in advertising, marketing or promotion without the prior written permission of Harris Interactive.
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Q1225, 1226, 1228
The Harris Poll® #61, May 23, 2011
By Regina A. Corso, SVP, Harris Poll, Public Relations and Youth Research, Harris Interactive
About Harris Interactive
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SOURCE Harris Interactive