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As NBC struggles, networks vie for No. 1 perch

Posted on: Wednesday, 24 August 2005, 01:25 CDT

By Cynthia Littleton

LOS ANGELES (Hollywood Reporter) - During the past decade of upheaval in the television business, there was at least one tradition on which the industry could count: NBC crowing at the end of May about another big finish.

The network's primetime dominance was a dynasty begun during President Ronald Reagan's first term, but the house that Grant Tinker and Brandon Tartikoff built now needs top-to-bottom refurbishing. NBC's fall from No. 1 to No. 4 among the Big Four networks during the 2004-05 season -- the beginning of the post-"Friends" era -- was swift and severe, NBC executives concede.

"People were a little stunned, a little beaten up at the end of last (season)," NBC Entertainment president Kevin Reilly says.

NBC's woes have left a power vacuum in primetime, and industry veterans say such instability can be at once intimidating and invigorating. As Labor Day weekend draws near, network executives are bracing for another season on the brink.

"There's no doubt it is going to be a horse race for every rating point," says CBS scheduling guru Kelly Kahl, the network's senior executive vp programming operations.

CBS and Fox -- last season's top-ranked broadcasters in the key measures of total viewers and the adults 18-49 demographic, respectively -- remain the networks to beat in the 2005-06 heat. But the razor-thin margins between them, coupled with ABC's formidable momentum, promise to make the primetime race up for grabs as it hasn't been since the dawn of NBC's "Friends" and "ER" during the 1994-95 season.

The ratings fight also is fierce in good measure because the Big Four networks and most large cable outlets are scrapping over a shrinking slice of an ever-more-fragmented TV universe, though broadcasters' audience erosion has slowed during recent years with the arrival of such hits as CBS' "Survivor," Fox's "American Idol" and, most recently, ABC's "Desperate Housewives."

Although WB and UPN marked their 10th anniversaries on-air in 2005, both networks lost ground ratings-wise, making them less competitive than ever before with their Big Four brethren.

Basic cable networks, on the other hand, continue to present a collective threat to broadcasters' primetime dominance. The share of the adults 18-49 pie claimed by basic cable (50-plus advertising-supported channels) grew 6% last season to an average of nearly 21.4 million viewers in that demo, compared with a 1% decline to a combined average of 20 million for ABC, CBS, Fox and NBC.

During the 2004-05 season, Fox and CBS were separated by a mere 140,000 viewers in their adults 18-49 demo derby. Fox eked out the win with an average of 5.34 million viewers in that coveted age group, and CBS averaged 5.2 million.

Fox has been a wild card in the primetime sweepstakes during the past few years. "Idol" has kept the network competitive on a season-long basis, but Fox also has spent a fair amount of time in valleys between "Idol" peaks.

"The most scary position to be in is the No. 1 network," Fox entertainment president Peter Liguori says. "It can breed a specific amount of safety. I think everyone is feeling like there's a target on our back. ... The only way to stay No. 1 is to be aggressive, know there's a target on your back and go for it."

The big win for Fox last season was the blossoming of "House." The medical drama bowed in November to numbers that generally spell quick cancellation, but it showed just enough life for Fox to gamble on placing it behind the Tuesday hour-long edition of "Idol."

CBS derives much of its strength from its heft in the total-viewers column. The network last season enjoyed the widest margin of victory for any network in a key ratings measure with an average of 12.91 million viewers, 2.9 million ahead of its nearest competitors, ABC (10.04 million) and Fox (10.03 million).

CBS' major milestones in 2004-05 were closing out the season with primetime's top two comedies -- "Everybody Loves Raymond" in its swan-song year and its heir apparent, "Two and a Half Men" -- and winning Thursday night outright for the first time in more than 20 years.

In the current zero-sum primetime game, ABC's dramatic turnaround behind the blindingly hot freshman hits "Housewives" and "Lost" only made it more difficult for NBC to staunch the bleeding. ABC now enjoys a huge promotional platform on Sunday night, which it dominates with the 8-11 p.m. one-two-three punch of "Extreme Makeover: Home Edition," "Housewives" and midseason surprise "Grey's Anatomy."

With ABC's long drama drought ended, the network is focusing a good deal of its firepower on seeding new comedy hits. Industry insiders have been surprised by the high volume of new and returning sitcoms ABC has on deck for the coming season.

ABC plans to hold back some of its nontraditional comedy fare -- including "Emily's Reasons Why Not" and "Crumbs" -- until midseason, when it can benefit from extra TLC in promotion and marketing instead of getting crushed in the fall, according to ABC Entertainment president Stephen McPherson.

"We think the network is just at the beginning of rebuilding," he says. "This is not about pounding our chest and saying, 'What a great year!' and settling in; this is about (saying), 'Hey, we took some terrific steps.' We have a crew of people who are incredibly passionate about television and excited again about being part of it. That, to me, is one of our biggest victories."

While no one could have predicted ABC's turnaround at this time last year, everyone predicted that NBC would be wobbly without "Friends" in its familiar leadoff position on Thursday, once that network's most dominant night. But few, particularly inside NBC headquarters in Burbank and New York, were prepared for how fast and how far the network would drop.

NBC slid to a 3.5 rating/9 share average among adults 18-49 during the 2004-05 season, compared with its leading 4.2/12 in 2003-04. The news got worse as the season progressed: During the May sweep period, NBC slipped further behind Fox and CBS to a 3.2/9 average.

NBC saw ratings for most of its tentpole shows -- particularly "The Apprentice," "Fear Factor," "Will & Grace" and "Law & Order" -- deflate, and none of its new series gained Nielsen traction until the drama "Medium" popped up as a midseason success in January.

"Apprentice" especially was unable to match its impressive first-season statistics, but then, Donald Trump and company faced a much tougher job description in a 9 p.m. Thursday berth during their sophomore year. The reality hit built nearly 70% on the adults 18-49 average of its "Will" lead-in, even opposite the heat of CBS' "CSI: Crime Scene Investigation."

Reilly has acknowledged that NBC is handicapped by "being out of business at 8 o'clock" on most nights, boasting few of the strong leadoff shows that are crucial to generating audience flow. As generations of network programs can attest, if you can't get 'em there at 8 p.m., then you're going to have to work twice hard to pull 'em away from someplace else at 9 and 10 p.m.

Reuters/Hollywood Reporter

Source: REUTERS

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