Fox, NBC mull midseason moves

By Andrew Wallenstein

LOS ANGELES (Hollywood Reporter) – With the summer hit
“Dancing With the Stars” now set to cut in on Thursday nights
starting in January, some of ABC’s competitors are considering
some fancy footwork of their own.

Fox is weighing a shift of television’s top-rated series,
“American Idol,” to Thursday to grab a greater share of the
massive amounts of movie marketing dollars studios lavish on
the night. NBC may follow suit with a bold move of “My Name Is
Earl,” which has emerged as primetime’s top-rated comedy in the
coveted adults 18-49 demographic.

To be sure, no one can know whether the industry chatter
about these potential scheduling shifts are trial balloons or
strong considerations; programming brass often engage in the
kind of posturing and politicking commonly seen among
contestants on another Thursday asset, CBS’ “Survivor.”

But in stark contrast to the stability the broadcasters are
preaching as they head into the November sweep period Thursday,
no one is ruling out the possibility of a major scheduling
shakeup on TV’s most lucrative night as the new year
approaches.

“We think about it, we’ve talked about it, it’s a
possibility,” Preston Beckman, executive vp strategic program
planning at Fox, said of a Thursday “Idol” move. “But right now
we have the right plan going forward for our schedule.”

Fox made a big move on the night last season in relocating
its teen fave “The O.C.” to 8 p.m. Thursday, where it has given
the network a pulse on a night where it had long been D.O.A.

NBC brass also are treading cautiously with “Earl,” given
the risks of messing with the good fortune the Jason Lee comedy
show has found on Tuesday.

“It’s something we’ll look at really carefully,” Mitch
Metcalf, executive vp program planning and scheduling at NBC,
said of the prospect of moving “Earl.” “The last thing we want
to do is damage an asset.”

The jockeying for position is a continuation of a trend
first triggered at May’s “upfront” advertising market, when
several networks made bold scheduling changes while the network
that once owned the night, NBC, has stuck with a shaky lineup
that has only grown weaker this season.

“I think the thing with Thursday night is, it’s not the
daunting night it used to be,” Beckman said. “Everyone feels
they can go in and make some noise.”

Beckman would not speculate on specific “Idol” scheduling
strategies, but the most commonly heard scenario among the
rumblings in broadcaster boardrooms this week was Fox pushing
the results show from Wednesday to 9 p.m. Thursday, replacing
new drama “Reunion.” That also would keep “Idol” away from
ABC’s sophomore drama “Lost,” which has only picked up steam in
its new Wednesday 9 p.m. time slot.

Many doubt that Fox would dare alter a franchise it has so
carefully and conservatively cultivated over the years; some
suggest the network is simply feeding the rumor bill to keep
competitors off balance. Peter Liguori, president of
entertainment at Fox, may be loath to put himself in the
position of being the man who hurt “Idol” so early in his new
job; the Wednesday hour is estimated to command more than
$700,000 from advertisers for a 30-second spot, making it the
most expensive primetime slot.

But Liguori also may be feeling emboldened now that Fox is
seeing strength elsewhere on the schedule, including the
successful launch of Monday drama “Prison Break” and the
continuing strength of 9 p.m. Tuesday drama “House.”

As for NBC, “Earl” may not command “Idol” ad prices yet,
but moving it could represent an even bigger risk. The Tuesday
9 p.m. comedy is a huge point of pride for a struggling network
that may not want to jeopardize a good thing.

That said, the 9 p.m. Tuesday hour is not a total success
story for NBC. The 9:30 p.m. comedy “The Office” is retaining
just 56% of its 18-49 lead-in, according to Nielsen Media
Research figures. Although the retention has trended up in
recent weeks, it’s still the weakest retention rate among all
comedy pairings on the Big Four. But would “Earl’s” scruffy
charms work better opposite the slicker urban stylings of NBC’s
flagging Thursday comedies “Joey” or “Will & Grace?”

One commonly cited scenario is that NBC will double-pump
“Earl” in some form, either moving its slot to 8 p.m. Thursday
and repeating it Tuesday or stacking a repeat at 9:30 Tuesday
to correct the lag in its “Office” lead-out.

Another question for NBC is timing. Thursday’s serious
declines would necessitate putting “Earl” in as soon as
possible, but “Earl” may have to wait until March, when NBC is
expected to institute changes all over the schedule backed by
promotional power of its Winter Olympics coverage in the second
half of February.

ABC isn’t waiting until then, replacing 8 p.m. Thursday
entry “Alias” (due to star Jennifer Garner’s maternity leave)
with “Dancing,” the biggest summer hit since “Survivor” dawned
in 2000. Although “Alias” and new drama “Night Stalker”
improved ABC’s 18-49 ratings by 11% over the previous year,
there’s room for improvement, said to Jeff Bader, executive vp
ABC Entertainment.

“We need to do better on Thursday,” he acknowledged.

The return of “Dancing” also raises other questions,
including where on the schedule its results show will end up,
whether “Alias” will eventually return to the same time slot
and whether “Stalker” will last much longer on Thursdays too.
In a brutal time slot, “Stalker” has averaged a paltry 2.1
rating/5 share in adults 18-49. “To go up against ‘CSI,’ we
knew was a tough task to begin with,” Bader said.

ABC’s “Dancing” likely will take a sizable chunk of the
audience left behind by “Survivor,” which probably will be
between seasons for most if not all of “Dancing’s” eight-week
run. ABC’s decision to shift “Dancing” may also reflect a
creeping vulnerability at CBS, even though the network has
largely replaced NBC as the dominant force on Thursday.
Nevertheless, all three CBS series are drooping versus year-ago
numbers, particularly “Survivor,” which is down 15% in 18-49.
All in all, CBS is down 8% in 18-49 on the night.

Kelly Kahl, executive vp program planning and scheduling,
isn’t worried. “‘Survivor’ is down a little bit, but think of
how resilient the show is,” he said.

Fox and NBC aren’t the only ones who may need to make
midseason moves on Thursday. Although UPN has rejuvenated its
lineup with “Everybody Hates Chris,” the network may have to
tinker with the rest of the night’s lineup. “Chris,” which
averages a 2.4/7 in 18-49, is not boosting the likes of 8:30
p.m. entry “Eve” (1.5/4).

What might embolden a little Thursday experimentation is
WB, which raised eyebrows by shifting two of its more
established players, “Smallville” and “Everwood,” strengthening
its hand on the night, particularly with the young-male
audience; “Smallville” takes in more men 18-34 than “Survivor.”

“We feel not only we’ve established a toehold, but we
planted a flag on what’s arguably the most important TV night
of the week,” said Rusty Mintz, senior vp programming and
scheduling at WB.

And then there is the school of thought that holds that
“Dancing” and any other potential Thursday latecomers may only
end up raising overall HUT (homes using television) levels on
the night, giving everyone something to gain. When “Survivor”
first moved to 8 p.m. Thursday in 2000, it carved out an
audience without hobbling NBC’s “Friends.” Similarly, NBC’s
“The Apprentice” last year found its own sizable viewership in
the shadow of CBS’s “CSI: Crime Scene Investigation” in the 9
p.m. hour.

“Look historically at Thursday when shows have gone in
there; it hasn’t been a zero-sum game; they’ve added to the
pie,” Mintz said.

Reuters/Hollywood Reporter