North-Central Region Poised for Continued Growth

By Kasey, Pam

MORGANTOWN – North-central West Virginia’s economy continues to expand, and coal likely will play a role in its future growth.

That was the message at the North Central Region Economic Outlook Conference in Morgantown March 1.

The north-central region has added jobs, population and per capita income faster than the state since 2000 and is expected to keep growing during the next five years, according to George Hammond, director of the West Virginia Economic Outlook Project at the Bureau of Business and Economics Research at West Virginia University.

The north-central region includes the Morgantown metropolitan statistical area and the Fairmont and Clarksburg micropolitan statistical areas – taken together, Monongalia, Preston, Marion, Harrison, Doddridge and Taylor counties.

“The region’s job gains, at 1.7 percent per year since 2000, far outpaced growth for West Virginia (0.2 percent) and the nation (0.3 percent),” Hammond said.

The same story holds for per capita income growth, although the region outpaced the state but not the nation in population growth. Overall, the northcentral region has been one of the fastest growing regions in the state.

The forecast calls for the north-central region to continue to post strong job gains through 2010, with those gains outpacing both the state and the nation.

While growth will likely come fastest in the Morgantown metropolitan statistical area, the entire region is expected to perform well, Hammond said.

“Overall, I expect the north-central region to continue to outpace the state economy and to exceed or come close to U.S. growth by most measures,” he said. “The region will continue to benefit from a strong concentration of highly educated residents, as well as from the medical, higher education, and emerging hightechnology concentrations in the area.”

The region will also benefit from its coal, according to conference presenter Jim Truman, a coal analyst in the Westover, W.Va., office of Maryland-based market consultants Hill & Associates.

The growing number of scrubber installations at coal-fired power plants dramatically will increase the demand for high-sulfur Northern Appalachian coal during the next five years, according Truman.

A chart illustrating coal tonnage at plants adding scrubbers showed about 3 tons per year of new market for northern Appalachian highsulfur coal in 2005 and 12 ton5 in 2006, rising steeply to 45 new tons in 2007 and 57 in 2008.

“The sum of all that, by 2010, is 140 million tons,” Truman said, with more likely to be announced.

“These plants have been buying coal for years but all of a sudden northern West Virginia high- sulfur coals will be able to sell into these plants,” he said.

Production of northern Appalachian coal, which comes from parts of Kentucky, Maryland, Ohio and Pennsylvania, as well as northern West Virginia, has increased from a low of about 125 million tons in 2003 to about 143 million tons in 2005, Truman said.

“And we expect this to blossom even more over the next few years because of the scrubber situation,” he added. New production expected in the region includes an Alliance Coal Tunnel Ridge mine in the Northern Panhandle and the Alliance Buffalo Ridge mine in southwestern Pennsylvania, he said, expected together to produce five to six million tons each year and to open in 2008.

Consol, International Coal Group and United Coal, with mines in Barbour, Marshall, Randolph and Taylor counties, are also increasing production, he said.

Printed copies of the North Central Region and Morgantown MSA Outlook are available for $15 each by calling the Bureau of Business and Economics Research at (304) 293-7831.

The conference was sponsored by the WVU College of Business and Economics, with underwriting support from Centra Bank, Clear Mountain Bank, Energy Village, I-79 Development Council, Morgantown Area Economic Partnership, The Chambers Endowed Program for Electronic Business, The Dominion Post, The State Journal and the West Virginia Department of Revenue.

Copyright State Journal Corporation Mar 10, 2006