Horse race heats up for Fox, ABC and CBS

By Cynthia Littleton

LOS ANGELES (Hollywood Reporter) – Last summer, primetime
pundits predicted this season would come down to a photo finish
among Fox, ABC and CBS in the coveted adults 18-49 demographic.
The thoroughbreds in this race have not disappointed.

Most network number-crunchers foresee Fox pulling ahead by
a nose in the final stretch next month to win by one-tenth of a
rating point, or a mere 130,000 viewers, with ABC and CBS right
behind. Braggadocio aside, the real story behind the razor-thin
margins is that each of those networks generally has had a good
season, albeit in different ways.

At Fox, not even the most bullish “American Idol” fans
could have predicted that the show would come back in January
with such force to become even more dominant than last season.
In 2004-05, the Tuesday edition of “Idol” was primetime’s
most-watched program overall, but it had only a 700,000-viewer
edge over CBS’ second-ranked “CSI: Crime Scene Investigation.”
So far this season, the Tuesday “Idol” has a 6.8 million viewer
lead over third-ranked “CSI.” (Wednesday’s “Idol” ranks No. 2.)

That “Idol” hasn’t given Fox more of an advantage at this
stage of the game is a testament to how much ground the network
had to make up, especially from its postseason baseball
coverage in the fall. There was no way Fox could re-create the
magic, or the magical Nielsen numbers, of the Boston Red Sox’s
march to victory in 2004. The introduction of “Prison Break”
and the continued heat of the dramas “House” and “24″ have
helped Fox’s cause.

ABC is poised to end the season with the highest gains
among the Big Four. As of the week ending March 26, ABC was the
only network up over last season in adults 18-49 and in total
viewers. The February Super Bowl telecast accounts for some but
not all of that momentum.

ABC didn’t have the Midas touch with its new shows this
season as it did in ’04-’05, but “Desperate Housewives” and
“Lost” have hung tough, given how high the bar was set after
their first seasons. Round 2 of “Dancing With the Stars” proved
to be another top 10 entry. But the real workhorse of ABC this
season has been “Grey’s Anatomy,” the medical drama that has
hit white-hot pop culture status with ratings to match.

What CBS has more than any of the others is fearsome bench
strength. CBS’ wide lead in total viewers is paced by a stable
of solid dramas that are still on the grow: “Without a Trace,”
“NCIS,” “CSI: NY,” “Cold Case” and “Numbers,” joined this
season by rookies “Criminal Minds” and “The Unit.”

NBC has endured the kind of season that top management mea
culpa-ed for in advance last year during its “upfront”
presentation to advertisers. But there has been some joy in
Burbank. “My Name Is Earl” defied naysayers and worked
respectably, if not spectacularly. And the decision to hang in
with “The Office” has been rewarded, thanks to iTunes.

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Was it a coincidence or history repeating itself? Producer
Moctezuma Esparza couldn’t help but notice that the timing of
last week’s walkouts by Los Angeles-area high school students
to protest immigration-related legislation pending in Congress
came soon after the March 18 premiere of “Walkout,” his HBO
telefilm about student protests in East Los Angeles in 1968.
Esparza says that the conditions that inspired the 1968
demonstration, in which he participated, are little changed
nearly 40 years later. “I cannot ignore the fact that our movie
was very specific in re-creating the tactics and strategies of
what we did in 1968 and that it has inspired students today,”
he says.

(Noela Hueso contributed to this column.)

Reuters/Hollywood Reporter