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Mideast Looks Forward to 2005 Elections

Posted on: Saturday, 1 January 2005, 12:00 CST

CAIRO, Egypt - From Baghdad to Cairo, from Riyadh to the Gaza Strip, election is the mantra for 2005. Iraqis, Palestinians, Egyptians, even Saudis will be going to the polls, giving them a new sense of power in a region largely run by monarchs and dictators even in places where parliaments exist.

But some say it doesn't necessarily signal real change.

"Elections is a magic word. You have got the magic word but you don't have magic without delivering," said Saudi analyst Mai Yamani, with the Royal Institute of International Affairs in London. "I don't think there is any significance unless there is genuine intent to reform, share of power, minimize the power of the ruling elite, end corruption."

Fahmi Howeidi, a liberal Islamic thinker in Egypt, says the Jan. 9 Palestinian election is the only one where there are real political players and the possibility of change.

In Iraq, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, it's just "painting the house," he said. "The results are known and there will be no fundamental change ... a soap opera, a response to American pressure, and not a result of popular demand or a strong political action. There is no political struggle."

After toppling Saddam Hussein in 2003, the United States promised Iraq would become a model for Arab democracy, and pressured regimes in the region to yield to some local demands for change. Reform, Washington holds, will make Muslim and Arab societies less fertile ground for extremists.

But many question whether elections under occupation (Iraq, West Bank and Gaza Strip) or under foreign pressure (Saudi Arabia) can really prompt change in the region.

Iraqis are scheduled to vote Jan. 30 in the first free elections since the overthrow of their monarchy in 1958, choosing a legislative assembly to draft a constitution. "Your vote is gold; more precious than gold," reads one Iraqi poster on a Baghdad street. "Your vote is the future," encourages another.

Satellite TV ads show Iraqis proclaiming, "I am ready to vote," and outline a voter-registration process, a novelty for Arab viewers.

The Palestinians are voting for a successor to the late Yasser Arafat, who controlled Palestinian politics for more than 40 years.

In the Saudi capital, Riyadh, billboard messages prepare citizens for the kingdom's first nationwide elections, for municipal councils. "Participate in the decision-making. Your voice will not be heard unless you register," they say.

The balloting, set to start Feb. 10, is the first since municipal elections were held in a few cities in the 1960s.

Even now, councils won't be wholly elected and women will not be allowed to vote or run for office. Saudi Arabia will remain an absolute monarchy. But authorities promote the election as a first step.

Saudi men are exhorted to embrace the process out of national pride and to turn out in traditional dress - white gowns and checkered headdresses - when registering. But Yamani, the Saudi analyst, noted registration has been slow, and said the kingdom's citizens have little hope for change through the elections. Less than 40 percent of the eligible male voters turned out to register for the kingdom's first ballot in decades.

In Egypt, the Arab world's most populous country, President Hosni Mubarak is up for a fifth six-year term. Parliamentary elections are also scheduled for late 2005.

Egyptians vote yes or no to a single candidate presented to them by Parliament, and Parliament has long been controlled by Mubarak's ruling party. Mubarak's candidacy, although not yet official, is almost certain, with the government rejecting opposition demands for term limits.

Voters will choose lawmakers in Lebanon and Yemen, and a president in Yemen and Iran. The vote in Lebanon comes after an international uproar over a constitutional amendment that extended the term of pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud, avoiding presidential elections. Neighboring, autocratic Syria is seen as having engineered the extension.

Arab elections are regularly marred by rigging and violence, and end with reports of overwhelming support for the autocratic ruler. Mubarak won his fourth six-year term in 1999 with nearly 94 percent of the vote, which was boycotted by opposition groups. Syrian President Bashar Assad took 97.29 percent in 2000, and Saddam Hussein won 100 percent in his last referendum before being toppled.

"When one looks at this elections phenomenon, one would think the Arab countries are living the spring of democracy, amid flowers of reform and change," columnist Saleh Eddin Hafez wrote recently in the Al-Ahram daily.

"But the obvious truth ... is that democracy can't be realized through Arab elections."

Source: Associated Press/AP Online

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