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Martin Poised to Become Next Canadian PM

Posted on: Sunday, 21 September 2003, 06:00 CDT

Former Finance Minister Paul Martin had a huge lead Sunday in committed delegates for the convention that will choose the next governing party leader, making him the certain successor to Jean Chretien as prime minister.

In unofficial figures supplied by the Liberal Party, Martin had 2,420 delegate votes so far - approaching the more than 2,900 needed for a first-ballot victory at the November convention to select a new party leader to replace Chretien, who has announced he will retire in February.

Under Canada's political system, the head of the majority party in Parliament is prime minister. If Martin gets the Liberal leadership, as expected, he automatically would become the head of government when Chretien steps down.

Some 531,000 Liberal Party members across Canada have been voting since Friday for the 5,800 delegates to the convention. Sunday was the final day of the ballot.

Most of the delegates will be obligated to support either Martin or his only leadership rival, Heritage Minister Sheila Copps, in the first round of balloting at the convention.

Party officials have confirmed that either candidate will win a first-round victory at the convention if they enter it with the committed support of more than 50 percent of the delegates.

Of the almost 2,700 delegates chosen as of Sunday morning, Martin had the support of more than 90 percent. Official results from the delegate selection process are expected Tuesday.

Copps had the support of 231 delegates and 15 others had declared they would be voting as independents, meaning they will be

allowed to vote for either candidate at the November

leadership convention.

Martin's lead leaves little doubt that the 65-year-old businessman-turned-politician will be Canada's next prime minister.

His support is so strong that other challengers for the party leadership, including Industry Minister Allan Rock and Deputy Prime Minister John Manley, dropped out because they had no chance of winning.

"The results have been incredibly encouraging," Martin spokesman Scott Reid said Saturday. "But we've got one more day of voting left, and the last thing we want to do tonight is encourage people to not get out and vote tomorrow."

While farfetched scenarios exist for Martin to fail to secure the party leadership, such as delegates spoiling their first-round ballots to be able to vote for Copps in a second round, such possibilities are considered virtually impossible given Martin's widespread support.

Whoever succeeds Chretien will have less than two years remaining in the five-year mandate to govern the Liberals won in the November 2000 election. Chretien's successor is likely to call a new federal election soon after taking power to get a new five-year mandate.

A Martin victory would end a tough campaign to gain the political office sought but never held by his father, former Liberal Party politician Paul Martin Sr.

The elder Martin was a Cabinet minister who fought for national health insurance and other social programs, and tried but failed three times to win the Liberal Party leadership.

The younger Martin, who has a law degree, headed the Montreal-based Canada Steamship Lines and entered politics in 1988 as a Parliament member from Montreal. Two years later, he unsuccessfully challenged Chretien for the Liberal Party leadership in a bitter struggle.

Despite emnity between them, Martin served as Chretien's finance minister for more than eight years and was credited with balancing the budget and reducing the debt burden. He left the Cabinet in June 2002 amid growing resentment between Martin and Chretien factions in the party.

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