Democrats Are Sweating As Nomination Process Remains Unresolved

By Steve Kraske, The Kansas City Star, Mo.

Mar. 5–Hey, Pennsylvania, what do you think?

With Hillary Clinton the winner Tuesday night in Ohio and Texas, Democrats are looking at a nomination race extending at least another seven weeks until Pennsylvania votes on April 22.

Seven … long … weeks.

That prospect was making Democrats quake Tuesday night for a host of reasons.

First among them: the race’s increasingly negative tone.

Clinton has demonstrated that hitting Barack Obama with negative attacks is effective, so the tough criticism may well continue.

Her camp is touting what it calls “NAFTA-gate,” or the issue over exactly what an Obama aide told Canadian consulate officials in Chicago about Obama’s true intentions when it comes to trade.

She hit Obama with the “3 a.m. phone call” ads on TV in recent days that raised questions about his readiness to assume the post of commander-in-chief.

And she batted him over his ties to Chicago businessman Antoin “Tony” Rezko.

The attacks appear to have stuck. Among voters who made up their minds during the past three days, Clinton won 61 percent to 38 percent over Obama in Texas, according to exit polls.

Obama, meantime, has demanded that Clinton release her tax returns and other records when she was first lady.

“They could have a train wreck on their hands,” former White House adviser David Gergen said Tuesday on CNN.

Another issue looms — what to do with the Michigan and Florida delegations that, as things stand now, won’t be seated at the national convention because those states jumped the gun and held contests before Super Tuesday on Feb. 5.

Obama and Clinton almost certainly will split on that issue, with some Democrats calling for both states to hold a round of caucuses as a way to resolve the impasse.

The search for a resolution almost certainly would lead to bitterness and endless infighting, Democrats have said.

“We as a party have to make a decision,” said Kansas Democratic Party Chairman Larry Gates.

As the race grows longer, the prospects for Democrats “just get murkier,” said Burdett Loomis, a University of Kansas political scientist.

Even before the Texas results were known Tuesday night, Clinton made it clear that no matter what happened in Texas, the race had a ways to run.

“For everyone here in Ohio and across America who’s ever been counted out but refused to be knocked out, for everyone who has stumbled but stood right back up, and for everyone who works hard and never gives up — this one is for you,” Clinton said before supporters in Columbus.

“You know what they say,” she said. “As Ohio goes, so goes the nation. Well, this nation’s coming back and so is this campaign.”

Obama appeared before the cameras a short time later and spoke with equal confidence.

“We are on our way to winning this nomination,” he intoned.

But not only has Clinton smashed Obama’s momentum, the result of an impressive 11-state win streak, she has reason to look forward to Pennsylvania with confidence. She led by an average of nine points in four February polls conducted in that state.

Her victories Tuesday ended a growing sense that Clinton was on the brink of seeing her candidacy crash. Even her husband, the former president, had said his wife had to win Ohio and Texas to continue.

“I really do think that if Obama wins one of these (Texas or Ohio), it is the beginning of the end,” KU’s Loomis had said early Tuesday night.

Sen. Claire McCaskill of Missouri, who has been campaigning nationwide for Obama, had said Tuesday that, “The sooner we unite behind the candidate that has the lead in delegates, the better, especially if there is no mathematical way to overcome that lead.”

Gates and many other Democrats think the lack of resolution is pushing the party to the brink of a nightmare scenario. With the nomination in his hip pocket, Republican John McCain is off and running virtually unchecked as Obama and Clinton slug it out.

Democrats, meantime, now face the possibility of going to their August national convention in Denver without a nominee in place. This would raise all sorts of ugly issues.

The breathtakingly close race continues to provide tantalizing political textbook fodder. Once again Tuesday, the race proved impervious to the power of momentum.

Clinton ended Obama’s winning streak with her Rhode Island win. In the past, 11-state winning streaks were tantamount to winning the nomination.

In January, Obama won Iowa easily, only to see his momentum broken by Clinton’s unexpected win in New Hampshire.

Clinton built up a head of steam in the Northeast on Super Tuesday by winning New Jersey, Massachusetts and her home state of New York. But then she lost nearby Connecticut and Delaware.

Obama built up a head of steam in the Midwest with his Iowa win and triumphs in Kansas, Missouri and his home state of Illinois. But then he was crushed in Oklahoma.

To reach Steve Kraske, call 816-234-4312 or send e-mail to skraske@kcstar.com.

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