Blair Projected Winner in British Election

LONDON — Tony Blair won a historic third term as prime minister Thursday but his Labour Party suffered a sharply reduced parliamentary majority in apparent punishment for going to war in Iraq, according to projections based on exit polls.

Such an outcome, if confirmed by the actual vote count, could set the stage for Blair to be replaced in midterm by a party rival such as Gordon Brown. As Treasury chief, Brown was widely credited for the strong economy that appears to have clinched Labour’s victory, outweighing the bitterness many voters said they felt over Iraq.

The BBC and ITV television stations projected that Labour would have a 66-seat majority, down from its 161-seat lead over the combined opposition in the previous House of Commons.

The projections had Labour taking 37 percent of the popular vote, the lowest winning share ever. The Conservatives, showing their first signs of life since losing power eight years ago, were estimated at 33 percent.

Such a result matched the "bloody nose" – a humiliation but not a defeat – that opponents had hoped to give Blair.

The left-leaning Guardian newspaper offered free clothespins to any reader who requested one after a columnist urged reluctant Labour supporters to put aside opposition to the Iraq war to back the party for its domestic policies.

"My reasons for not voting Labour would have been the war in Iraq, but apart from that I think the Labour Party and Blair have done fairly well and I can’t bear the thought of the Conservatives doing well," chef Oliver Rowe said after voting in London.

Nicola Wyndham, 33, who voted for Labour four years ago but switched to the Liberal Democrats.

"Iraq has been a big thing – trust," Wyndham said. "He has had eight years to make an impact and he really hasn’t. There are still problems with health, education and crime."

The Conservatives, showing a new sense of discipline and purpose since the 63-year-old Michael Howard became leader two years ago, ran a hard-hitting campaign focused on immigration, violent crime and "superbug" infections in hospitals, contending that all were now out of control.

A big part of the Conservative strategy was to make it a referendum on Blair, urging voters to "wipe the smirk" off his face. Although Howard supported the Iraq war, he attacked Blair, accusing the prime minister of lying about intelligence and the legality of the invasion and lacking a plan to win the peace.

But Blair benefited from the Conservatives’ even greater unpopularity and a perception that the opposition is less capable of handling the economy.

And the government’s strong economic record – Britain’s growth is high and unemployment low compared to much of the rest of the European Union – appears to have outweighed the resentments over Iraq. Labour is also credited with improving public services such as health and education through investment.

Never before has the Labour Party won three straight elections. Margaret Thatcher accomplished the same feat for the Tories.

But under Britain’s parliamentary system, in which Blair must command a parliament majority and individual lawmakers often exercise independence, the size of the majority is critical.

William Jones, a political analyst at Manchester University, said that if it turned out to be "anything under 100," Blair would be "in for a tough time. Under 50 he will be in terrible difficulties I think we will see him disappear very quickly."

Geoff Andrews, a political analyst at the Open University, said a group of about 50 rebellious lawmakers within the Labour Party could exercise greater influence as its lead over the opposition slipped.

Blair’s government only narrowly defeated Labour revolts in the last parliament, including the crucial vote to go to war in Iraq and legislation to introduce tuition fees for university students, allow more private funding for state-run hospitals and toughen anti-terrorism laws.

Other governments have coped with smaller majorities. Thatcher won with a majority of 43 in 1979. Her successor, John Major, struggled along with a majority of 21, which shrank toward zero at the end of his five-year term in 1997.

The margin of a Labour victory could have consequences for Britain’s "special relationship" with the United States.

The battering that Blair took over Iraq during the campaign suggested that any future British leader will probably be wary of backing Washington militarily in the face of hostile domestic opinion.

Blair says this will be his last term. A politically weakened Blair would find it difficult to persuade British voters to approve a proposed constitution for the European Union – which requires ratification by all member states.

The projections, based on a survey of 13,000 or more voters in 115 closely contested districts, suggested Labour would win 356 seats, ahead of the Conservatives with 209. The Liberal Democrats, the only major party to oppose the Iraq war, were projected to win 53 seats – for them a disappointing gain of two seats. Other parties also won seats.

Democratic Party volunteers from the United States joined Blair’s campaign, including Stan Greenberg, Zack Exley, Bob Shrum and Karen Hicks.

Republicans, the traditional allies of British Conservatives, were not much in evidence. Bush’s White House has kept the Tories at arms length in deference to his alliance with Blair.

In New York, two small makeshift grenades exploded early Thursday outside a building housing the British Consulate. The blast caused minor damage and no injuries.