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Experts Predict More Ethnically Diverse Nation By Mid-Century

Posted on: Tuesday, 19 August 2008, 12:15 CDT

By Tony Castro

Rapidly shifting demographics are expected to sweep across the American landscape, reshaping it into a significantly older and more racially and ethnically diverse population by mid-century, according to new U.S. Census projections set to be released today.

Among the changes expected are that by 2050, the number of Latinos in the country is expected to double to account for nearly one in three U.S. residents, according to the data.

"Coming to your neighborhood soon - the Los Angeles experience," said population dynamics expert James Ballard, a sociology professor at Cal State Northridge.

Gina Coronado of Granada Hills - an elementary school administration assistant and mother of four who was born and raised in the San Fernando Valley - brought the reality of the new census report even closer home.

"The face of the San Fernando Valley today," she said, "is exactly what the country will look like tomorrow."

Indeed, the face of the Valley - where nearly 42 percent of the population is Latino and which already has a confluence of ethnicities and cultures - appears to reflect the latest projections for the country.

The Latino population is projected to nearly triple, from 46.7 million today to 132.8 million by 1950, going from 15 percent to 30 percent of the U.S. population.

Minorities, now roughly one-third of the U.S. population, are projected to become the majority in the country in 2042 - and projected to make up 54 percent by 2050.

By 2023, minorities will comprise more than half of all children.

The country's black population also is projected to increase from 41.1 million, or 14 percent of the population today, to 65.7 million, or 15 percent in 2050.

The Asian population is projected to climb from 15.5 million to 40.6 million.

And its share of the nation's population is expected to rise from 5.1percent to 9.2 percent.

Meanwhile, in 2030 - when all of the baby boomers will be 65 and older - nearly one in five U.S. residents is expected to be 65 and older.

By 2050, this age group is projected to increase to 88.5million - more than doubling the 38.7 million today.

At the same time, by 2050, the population 85 and older is expected to more than triple, from 5.4 million today to 19million.

The demographics phenomenon, experts said, is both generational and cultural: As baby boomers retire in coming years, they will be increasingly replaced by Latino and Asian immigrants and their children and grandchildren.

"This change has been coming," Ballard said. "It's a function of several things: the aging of the traditional population, the birthrate of the newer population, the immigrant population, but also the growth of the Hispanic culture, not just in the desert Southwest but across the United States.

"All of these social forces are coming to a head, and we're going to see by 2050 a dramatic shift in the rest of the country.

"But for those of us in Southern California, it's happened. Look at the San Fernando Valley. What they're projecting for the rest of the country has already transpired in Los Angeles."

The impact on the politics of the country as well as the infrastructures of communities - from social services to health care - will be equally dramatic and place new pressures on local governments.

"If we think that politicians are starting to pay attention to Latinos and Latino communities now, you ain't seen nothing yet," said Jaime Regalado, director of the Edmund G. "Pat" Brown Institute at Cal State Los Angeles.

"Virtually across the board we're going to see increasing demands for more equitable distribution of power and power arrangements in and beyond California," Regalado added.

Experts also say it will increase the pressure on future lawmakers for more comprehensive and enforceable immigration legislation.

Israel Salas of Panorama City, a recent graduate of the UC Berkeley who is looking forward to law school, said he remains hopeful that Latinos in coming years will make more economic and political strides and contributions to their communities.

"I think the children of first- and second-generation Americans tend to work harder than those who have advantages handed to them," he said. "And I look forward to seeing what kinds of education advances Hispanics are making at midcentury."

Other Valley residents, like Linda Fidell of Winnetka, a retired CSUN psychology professor, worry that the real issue will be the sheer size of the entire population.

"What bothers me is that we'll outrun our resources," she said. "It's not a question of what kind of people. It's a question of how many people.

"We use far more resources per capita than anyone else in the world. A small population increase here is worse than a large increase in population elsewhere. So unless we get a handle on our energy so that we're doing it in a sustainable way, I don't see how the world can afford us."

Los Angeles City Councilman Richard Alarc n said he has witnessed the diversification of the Valley, which he said is likely to be the pattern for the country in coming years.

"On the one hand, it has developed a kind of tolerance that is a majority way of thinking," he said.

"In other respects, it's created some tension," he added.

What the new projections mean for the state, according to analysts from the liberal California Budget Project, which released its own population expectation report this week, is that it must invest more in education, infrastructure and services or face a crisis.

"If we want to make sure that we have a high-quality work force that meets the needs of an increasingly globalized economy," said Jean Ross, executive director of the budget project, "we need to address the needs of our public schools so that the young people have the skills they need to replace the baby boomers.

"We need to begin planning to meet the needs of a growing population as well as in many cases begin to maintain the systems that we built many years ago that haven't been properly maintained over time."

According to the California Budget Project report, in the next 12 years, the state's Latino population will increase by 65.1percent and its white population by only 2.3 percent.

Demographers say the slow growth in the non-Latino white population is driven by a low birthrate that isn't keeping up with the thousands of whites who die each year.

The Latino growth is driven by a young population that has a low death rate and a stable birthrate.

"The fact of the matter," Ballard said, "is that the census and their projections is nothing more than recognizing the reality of what's happening across the country - and that reality already exists here in Los Angeles and that's true of the San Fernando Valley."

Source: Inland Valley Daily Bulletin

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