The Thrill and Discomfort of Palin Pick

By Reid Wilson

Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin was off the radar until rumors swirled late on the evening of Aug. 28, but she succeeded in doing what John McCain has long failed to do: The soon-to-be vice presidential nominee has created a level of excitement among the conservative base that has not existed so far this presidential election.

Palin, the first woman to be nominated for vice president on a Republican ticket, has credentials that younger conservatives in Washington find virtually irresistible. A fiscal hawk and social conservative, she is seen as one of the most ardently pro-life politicians in the Republican Party.

She also has a history of battling her own party in a way that establishment Republicans respect, in marked contrast to McCain’s own method of treading upon GOP toes. Palin won the governor’s mansion in 2006 by beating incumbent Republican Frank Murkowski in the primary after Murkowski’s approval ratings tumbled amid scandal. She has fought to remove the chairman of the state Republican Party, though so far she’s been unsuccessful.

Palin also backed her Lieutenant Governor, Sean Parnell, in a primary battle against long-serving Rep. Don Young, one of almost a dozen Alaska Republicans under investigation for his role in a scandal surrounding VECO Corp., an oil services firm that has been accused of bribing state officials. Parnell came within 150 votes of beating Young, a powerhouse who has represented the state since 1973, though absentee ballots are still being counted.

Her efforts to clean house in her own state have won Palin notice from a new generation of Republicans in Washington who are engaged in their own efforts to remake the party. And, strategists and party activists said, it plays right into McCain’s image as a maverick and a reformer.

The pick “is quintessential John McCain. He’s doubled down on his image as a reform-minded maverick,” said Kevin Madden, a Republican strategist who served as a top communications aide to Mitt Romney in the Republican primaries. “You now have two people on one ticket with strong reputations for taking on the status quo in an election year that, by everyone’s estimation, is going to be about who can best take on the Washington, D.C. mindset.”

Palin also might help McCain pick up a constituency that has not backed Republicans in decades. “Conservatives will be thrilled with this pick,” said Greg Mueller, a former top aide to conservative presidential contenders Steve Forbes and Pat Buchanan, in an e- mail. “Governor Palin is a down-the-line mainstream conservative who will energize the base and reach across party lines attracting women voters, independents and blue collar Democrats.”

After a bruising primary season in which Democrats Obama and Hillary Clinton essentially split the vote, some bitter feelings are inevitable, and McCain’s campaign has dispatched high-profile surrogates to woo leading women who once backed Clinton. The campaign even released an advertisement featuring a former Clinton delegate to the Democratic National Convention who was stripped of her status after she announced she would back McCain instead of Obama.

The timing of the pick could not have been better-planned. McCain announced the decision twelve hours after Obama accepted his party’s nomination in front of 84,000 people at Invesco Field in Denver. By making his decision public on Aug. 29 – and by not leaking the choice late Thursday, as had been rumored throughout the day – McCain effectively stole a share of a newscycle that otherwise would have belonged to Obama.

“It was smart, outside-the-box thinking to shake up the Obama momentum,” said Ron Bonjean, a former communications director for the Senate Republican Conference and former House Speaker Dennis Hastert. “And it has turned the media upside down on the news coverage and may decrease the Obama bounce from his speech.”

While the fallout among Republicans has been overwhelmingly positive, though, some worry that Palin’s nomination may bring up political pitfalls. With just a year-and-a-half in the governor’s mansion under her belt, the 44-year-old Palin might strip McCain of one of his key arguments against rival Barack Obama, that the Democrat does not have the experience necessary to be president.

“Nobody in America believes she is ready,” fretted one Republican consultant who asked not to be named. “She has a wonderful story that allows McCain to rip the change mantle away from Obama. But two years ago she was mayor of an Alaskan city and now we are putting her one heartbeat away from the presidency of a 72-year-old man.”

The consultant referred to the rest of Palin’s public career, as mayor of the town of Wasilla, Alaska, with a population less than 9,000, and as a city council member. Obama’s campaign pounced on what they called Palin’s lack of experience. “Today, John McCain put the former mayor of a town of 9,000 (sic) with zero foreign policy experience a heartbeat away from the presidency,” Obama spokesman Bill Burton said in a statement Aug. 29.

Obama later moderated his campaign’s tone, and called Palin to congratulate her and welcome her to the race.

Palin’s positive image among Republicans has thrilled the base, while her relative lack of experience could cost McCain a key contrast with Obama that works to his advantage. She has a history that can’t help but appeal to independent voters; her fifth child, born just five months ago, has Down Syndrome, and her working-class roots will play an important role in appealing to Reagan Democrats. But which aspect of Palin’s personality plays a more important role remains up in the air.

“The success of this pick in the short run is going to be overwhelming brilliant,” said Stuart Roy, a Republican strategist in Washington. “The real challenge comes post-convention. How adept the campaign is in handling the attempts to make her a liability for McCain will determine whether this was the best choice in the long run.”

Roy, who has worked for a number of female candidates, cautioned Republicans to expect attacks based on Palin’s gender, which he said would come in “a condescending and patronizing fashion.” Those attacks could backfire, especially if Democrats are seen as overbearing and insulting in their attacks on a younger woman.

Democrats briefly flirted with stepping over the line in their initial reaction, before Obama stepped in to tone down his campaign’s response. “Obama’s team made a huge initial mistake with their statement attacking Palin (for) being from a small town and lacking experience,” former Hill aide Bonjean said. “The more Obama’s campaign attacks Governor Palin on her track record, the more damage they do to Obama’s brand.”

But if Democrats question her knowledge of certain topics and Palin feels the need to prove herself an expert, she will get bogged down on Democrats’ turf and on Democratic terms, a situation the GOP candidate will not be able to turn to her advantage.

Palin and McCain should also avoid overplaying the Alaska governor’s gender, Roy said. If women voters come to believe that Palin was only chosen because of her gender and not because of her qualifications, any currency she has with independents and Democrats will quickly evaporate.

Originally published by Reid Wilson.

(c) 2008 Arizona Capitol Times. Provided by ProQuest LLC. All rights Reserved.