Military mulls troop cuts in Iraq

By Will Dunham

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The Pentagon plans to shrink the
U.S. troop presence in Iraq, currently 155,000, to about
138,000 after the December 15 Iraqi elections and is
considering dropping the number to about 100,000 next summer if
conditions allow, defense officials said on Wednesday.

But officials said a variety of planning scenarios,
including the possibility of no cut in troop levels, are being
reviewed based on political and security conditions in Iraq and
progress in developing U.S.-trained Iraqi security forces.

The officials stressed no decisions had been made. This
comes amid intensifying debate in the U.S. Congress over
whether U.S. troops should be withdrawn after 2-1/2 years of
war in Iraq.

“The United States military looks at the full range of
things that could occur in Iraq and makes plans accordingly,
and makes plans for conditions that would lead to a smaller
coalition force as well as conditions that would lead to a
larger coalition force,” said Pentagon spokesman Bryan Whitman.

Whitman said the plan was to drop back to 138,000 troops,
considered the recent baseline level for the U.S. force,
following the December 15 elections in which Iraqis will select
a new permanent government.

The Pentagon increased U.S. troop levels in Iraq ahead of
the October 15 referendum in which Iraqis approved a
constitution, and the U.S. force peaked in October at about
161,000, the highest level of the war. After temporarily
dropping by several thousand troops, the size of the U.S. force
again is rising to help provide security for the December 15
elections.

In March and again in July, Army Gen. George Casey, the top
U.S. commander in Iraq, predicted a “fairly substantial”
reduction in American forces next spring and summer if Iraq’s
political process goes positively and progress is made in
developing Iraqi security forces. Pentagon officials said in
August that meant a reduction of perhaps 20,000 to 30,000
troops from the level of 138,000 then in Iraq.

PHASED REDUCTION

A defense official, who asked not to be named, said such a
cut remains under consideration, but options for a smaller cut
or no reduction remain on the table.

“There is the potential over the course of next summer to
get to 100,000. Nothing is going to happen fast. It will all be
phased,” said the official.

“If you start going down below that, you might be sending a
message that we’re cutting and running,” the official added.

The No. 2 U.S. commander in Iraq, Army Lt. Gen. John Vines,
said on Tuesday a “precipitous pullout” of U.S. forces would be
destabilizing to Iraq.

The considerations come amid debate in Congress over the
future of U.S. involvement in Iraq. Rep. John Murtha of
Pennsylvania, an influential Democrat on military affairs who
fought as a Marine in Vietnam and voted for the Iraq war,
called last week for U.S. forces to be withdrawn within six
months.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said on Tuesday she
suspected American forces “are not going to be needed in the
numbers that they’re there for all that much longer” due to
progress being made by the Iraqis.

Defense officials said the political debate will not drive
decisions on troop levels.

U.S. forces are engaged in a fierce fight with insurgents.
There have been 2,108 U.S. military deaths in a war that began
in March 2003, the Pentagon said on Wednesday, with another
15,804 troops wounded in action. Thousands of Iraqis have also
been killed.

Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld is forecasting an
improving security situation. Last week he said, “In terms of
Iraq, the insurgency is going to diminish, I think, after these
elections.”

“So I think we’ll see the coalition forces being able to
pare down,” Rumsfeld said.