Bush to say in speech Iraq war is not lost

By Steve Holland and Adam Entous

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. President George W. Bush,
trying to regain American confidence in his Iraq war strategy,
will point to Iraq’s election on Sunday night as evidence the
war is not lost and cite communications from insurgents
suggesting that “they feel a tightening noose.”

“This election will not mean the end of violence,” Bush
will say, according to speech excerpts released by the White
House. “But it is the beginning of something new:
constitutional democracy at the heart of the Middle East.”

Iraqis turned out in the millions last Thursday to vote in
an election that will pave the way for the formation of a
permanent government.

Bush, struggling with low approval ratings and wide public
discontent with the rising U.S. death toll, hopes the election
will mark a turning point in support for his strategy, which is
costing taxpayers $6 billion a month.

Speaking from the Oval Office, the president will say he
recognized that many Americans “have questions about the cost
and direction of this war.”

“Some look at the challenges in Iraq, and conclude that the
war is lost, and not worth another dime or another day,” Bush
will say. “I don’t believe that. Our military commanders don’t
believe that.”

He will add: “Not even the terrorists believe it. We know
from their own communications that they feel a tightening noose
– and fear the rise of a democratic Iraq.”

The White House did not release details about
communications he was talking about. The address is scheduled
for 9 p.m. EST (0200 GMT on Monday).

Bush, under mounting pressure from Americans to show
progress in Iraq that will enable a reduction in U.S. troops
next year, will warn Americans of “the consequences of pulling
out of Iraq before our work is done.”

‘HAND OVER IRAQ’

“We would abandon our Iraqi friends — and signal to the
world that America cannot be trusted to keep its word… We
would hand Iraq over to enemies who have pledged to attack us
– and the global terrorist movement would be emboldened and
more dangerous than ever before,” Bush will say.

The U.S. commander in Iraq said U.S. forces there are
likely to shrink from a current 150,000 to their pre-election
total of 138,000 by early February.

But any drawdown beyond that will depend on the ability of
more Iraqis to defend themselves. U.S. commanders believe some
could be brought home in 2006. Some Democrats wants a specific
schedule for a phased redeployment, which Bush rejects.

Bush’s address follows Vice President Dick Cheney’s
surprise visit to Iraq on Sunday, his first since the 2003
invasion, and comes amid growing political pressure for a
drawdown in U.S. troop levels.

Sen. John McCain, an Arizona Republican, said before the
speech that he hoped Bush would explain that “We have a lot of
obstacles ahead of us, (and) it is a long, difficult process
for any nation to be able to become a democracy.”

Bush’s message must again acknowledge errors have been
made, but that “we can and will prevail,” McCain told ABC’s
“This Week.”

The president’s address follows a series of four speeches
he made on Iraq in the run-up to the Iraqi election. The White
House has asked U.S. television networks for live coverage.