Threat from China anti-secession law fades a year on

By Lindsay Beck

BEIJING (Reuters) – Regional tensions. Diplomatic
consequences. Security threats.

Those were the fears when China’s parliament passed a law
last year authorising the use of force against Taiwan should
the self-governing island move toward formal independence.

But a year later, as the rubber-stamp assembly meets once
again for its annual 10-day session, the anti-secession law
gets barely a mention from its top leaders, despite
provocations from Taiwan’s independence-minded president.

“It’s a piece of legislation which is packed away in a
little box and left on a shelf,” said Alexander Neill, who
heads the Asia Programme at Britain’s Royal United Services
Institute for Defense and Security Studies.

“It’s there as a bedrock or reference point for the Chinese
government but it’s not a particularly active piece of
legislation. It’s there as a fallback,” he said.

In February, when Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian scrapped
symbolic guidelines on unification with the mainland, Beijing
called the move a “dangerous provocation.”

But no mention was made of the law, which states that if
Taiwan moves toward independence, “the state shall employ
non-peaceful means and other necessary measures to protect
China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

“China wants to win the hearts and minds of the Taiwanese
people, so in the past few months they have said very little
about reunification,” said Shi Yinhong, professor of
international relations at Renmin University.

Analysts say that if the law temporarily ratcheted up
tensions, it also placated conservative factions, allowing
China to make overtures to Taiwan opposition leaders.

Last April, weeks after its passage, Taiwan’s then
opposition leader Lien Chan made history by becoming the first
chairman of the Kuomintang — the KMT or Chinese Nationalist
party forced to flee when Mao’s Communists swept to power in
1949 — to set foot on the mainland since the civil war.

Lien was followed by James Soong, whose People’s First
Party like the KMT favors eventual unification with China. The
visits changed the tone on Taiwan from sabre-rattling to
brotherly love.

“The Lien and Soong visits took the anti-secession law off
the agenda. Even though they were divisive within Taiwan, I
think they did ease cross-Strait relations,” said Dafydd Fell,
a Taiwan specialist at London’s School of Oriental and African
Studies.

Even in the diplomatic realm the fall-out appears to have
been short-lived.

Washington, which recognizes China but has also vowed to
defend Taiwan in case of attack, was initially alarmed, but the
law was “a temporary blip” for U.S.-China relations, Fell said,
not a lasting irritant.

There is no doubt the threat of military force that hangs
in the background is real.

“In case of the motherland’s needs, our army would …
firmly defend and guard national security, unity and
territorial sovereignty,” said Guo Boxiong, vice-chairman of
the Central Military Commission, quoted recently in the
Liberation Army Daily.

But it is the growing economic links across the Taiwan
Strait, not military threats, that are the stronger feature of
everyday life.

Wang Jing, a parliament delegate from Fujian, which faces
Taiwan, says the biggest issue in her region is the
construction of a special economic zone to facilitate trade.

“We do business with Taiwan, so we can see the improvements
in relations,” she said. “The hope for national reunification
is even stronger.”