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Threat from China anti-secession law fades a year on

Posted on: Saturday, 11 March 2006, 21:37 CST

By Lindsay Beck

BEIJING (Reuters) - Regional tensions. Diplomatic consequences. Security threats.

Those were the fears when China's parliament passed a law last year authorising the use of force against Taiwan should the self-governing island move toward formal independence.

But a year later, as the rubber-stamp assembly meets once again for its annual 10-day session, the anti-secession law gets barely a mention from its top leaders, despite provocations from Taiwan's independence-minded president.

"It's a piece of legislation which is packed away in a little box and left on a shelf," said Alexander Neill, who heads the Asia Programme at Britain's Royal United Services Institute for Defense and Security Studies.

"It's there as a bedrock or reference point for the Chinese government but it's not a particularly active piece of legislation. It's there as a fallback," he said.

In February, when Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian scrapped symbolic guidelines on unification with the mainland, Beijing called the move a "dangerous provocation."

But no mention was made of the law, which states that if Taiwan moves toward independence, "the state shall employ non-peaceful means and other necessary measures to protect China's sovereignty and territorial integrity."

"China wants to win the hearts and minds of the Taiwanese people, so in the past few months they have said very little about reunification," said Shi Yinhong, professor of international relations at Renmin University.

Analysts say that if the law temporarily ratcheted up tensions, it also placated conservative factions, allowing China to make overtures to Taiwan opposition leaders.

Last April, weeks after its passage, Taiwan's then opposition leader Lien Chan made history by becoming the first chairman of the Kuomintang -- the KMT or Chinese Nationalist party forced to flee when Mao's Communists swept to power in 1949 -- to set foot on the mainland since the civil war.

Lien was followed by James Soong, whose People's First Party like the KMT favors eventual unification with China. The visits changed the tone on Taiwan from sabre-rattling to brotherly love.

"The Lien and Soong visits took the anti-secession law off the agenda. Even though they were divisive within Taiwan, I think they did ease cross-Strait relations," said Dafydd Fell, a Taiwan specialist at London's School of Oriental and African Studies.

Even in the diplomatic realm the fall-out appears to have been short-lived.

Washington, which recognizes China but has also vowed to defend Taiwan in case of attack, was initially alarmed, but the law was "a temporary blip" for U.S.-China relations, Fell said, not a lasting irritant.

There is no doubt the threat of military force that hangs in the background is real.

"In case of the motherland's needs, our army would ... firmly defend and guard national security, unity and territorial sovereignty," said Guo Boxiong, vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission, quoted recently in the Liberation Army Daily.

But it is the growing economic links across the Taiwan Strait, not military threats, that are the stronger feature of everyday life.

Wang Jing, a parliament delegate from Fujian, which faces Taiwan, says the biggest issue in her region is the construction of a special economic zone to facilitate trade.

"We do business with Taiwan, so we can see the improvements in relations," she said. "The hope for national reunification is even stronger."

Source: REUTERS

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