Atlantic storm forecast lowered to 7 hurricanes

By Jim Loney

MIAMI (Reuters) – A noted U.S. hurricane research team
reduced its Atlantic storm forecast on Thursday from nine to
seven hurricanes, citing a cooler tropical Atlantic Ocean and a
warming eastern Pacific.

The new forecast could provide some relief to storm-weary
residents of the Caribbean basin and the U.S. East and Gulf
coasts who suffered through a record-shattering 28 tropical
storms and hurricanes last year. That number beat the old mark
of 21 set in 1933.

In its August forecast update, the Colorado State
University team formed by researcher William Gray said the June
to November season would produce seven, not nine, hurricanes
and that three of those would be “intense,” down from five in
the earlier forecast.

It predicted 15 tropical storms, down from a May forecast
of 17.

Intense hurricanes, like last year’s Katrina, Rita, Wilma
and Dennis, have maximum sustained winds of at least 111 miles
per hour (179 km per hour) and are capable of causing serious
damage.

The Atlantic season has produced only three tropical storms
so far. The latest, Chris, was fading as it moved north of
Puerto Rico on Thursday.

The forecast was lowered in part because tropical Atlantic
sea surface temperatures are not quite as warm as expected and
eastern Pacific waters are warming, the researchers said in a
statement.

Hurricanes draw their energy from warm Atlantic waters,
while warming temperatures in the equatorial Pacific tend to
dampen Atlantic hurricane activity.

In addition, Atlantic surface pressures are not quite as
low and trade winds are slightly stronger, said Gray, whose
extensive hurricane forecasts are closely watched by financial
markets.

“We’re not reducing the number of hurricanes because we had
only two named storms through late July,” Gray said. “It’s a
general erosion of a number of factors.”

Private weather forecaster WSI Corp. lowered its forecast
this week from 15 to 14 storms, citing in part an increased
chance of an “El Nino,” the warm-water phenomenon in the
eastern Pacific.

Both forecasts were still well above the long-term Atlantic
average of about 10 tropical storms, six hurricanes and two
intense hurricanes.

The Colorado State University team said activity was likely
to ramp up in August, with four storms. It said three would
likely be hurricanes and one of those would be intense.

The forecast also contained a hint of good news for the
beleaguered U.S. oil and gas industry in the Gulf of Mexico,
where last year’s storms shut down a quarter of U.S. crude
production.

“This year it looks like the East Coast is more likely to
be targeted by Atlantic basin hurricanes than the Gulf Coast,”
said Gray’s forecasting partner, Philip Klotzbach.

The 2005 season will be remembered for producing, for the
first time since hurricane record-keeping began, four Category
5 storms, the highest rank on the Saffir-Simpson scale of
hurricane intensity.

Katrina, which burst the levees protecting New Orleans,
killed more than 1,300 people and caused more than $80 billion
in damage, becoming the costliest natural disaster in U.S.
history.

Climate researchers believe the Atlantic basin has moved
into an extended period of heightened hurricane activity that
began around 1995 and could last 25 to 40 years.