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With no Castro in view, Cubans speculate over future

Posted on: Friday, 4 August 2006, 10:41 CDT

By Anthony Boadle

HAVANA (Reuters) - Cuban state media said on Friday Raul Castro had firm control of the communist-ruled island while his brother Fidel Castro was in hospital but uncertainty over Cuba's future grew as both men stayed out of public view.

"Raul is firmly at the helm of the nation and the armed forces," the Communist Party newspaper Granma said.

But it provided no new details on Fidel Castro's condition four days after he handed over power temporarily to his younger brother after surgery for gastrointestinal bleeding.

It was the first time since his 1959 guerrilla victory that Castro, one of the most iconic and controversial world leaders of the past 50 years, had delegated power to anyone else.

The news has created a tide of speculation over whether his rigid rule was about to end. In Cuba, where he has dominated almost every aspect of life, and across the Florida Straits in Miami, home to many thousands of exiles who have yearned for his demise for decades, people anxiously await developments.

Granma gave few clues. The newspaper, voice of the state which stifles independent press, said Cuba was totally calm. It also rejected calls from President Bush for a transition to multi-party democracy.

Many Cubans wondered when Raul, 75, would speak publicly.

"Raul will have to appear at some point. That is what we are all waiting for," said Antonio Cabana, a worker in Havana.

The only sign of Raul Castro was a file photo on Granma's front-page of his arrest after a famed guerrilla assault on the Moncada garrison in Santiago in 1953 with a story recounting his heroism.

Some analysts saw this as a tactic to build up his image before any further moves. Cuba's leaders may feel that if Raul Castro appeared too early it might touch off panic among Cubans after so many years under Fidel, they said.

The silence and secrecy helped feed the feeling among some Cubans that the Fidel Castro era may be ending.

'THERE, BUT NOT THERE'

"He is there, and he isn't. Nobody knows when or if he will return, but he hasn't stopped being there. ... However, people sense that nothing will remain the same," Miriam Leiva, a Cuban independent journalist and dissident, wrote in the Miami Herald.

"People feel fear and at the same time hope that the eternal savior at times of crisis, Raul Castro, will manage to pull the country out of the terrible economic, political and social situation it is in."

Raul Castro lacks the formidable charisma of his elder brother, who had been due to celebrate his 80th. birthday on August 13 with island-wide festivities.

The head of the armed forces, he has a reputation among exiles for ruthlessness but some analysts believe he could open Cuba up to China-style economic reforms of the sort long resisted by his brother.

The U.S. government -- Castro's implacable foe throughout his reign -- was also watching the situation closely.

Bush, whose administration has tightened the long-standing U.S. embargo, said in a statement Thursday: "We will support you (the Cuban people) in your effort to build a transitional government in Cuba committed to democracy."

Communist Youth newspaper editor Rogelio Polanco said on state television that Bush's urgings were futile.

"The only way to apply the Bush plan for regime change in Cuba is by force, and force will not work," he said.

On the streets, some also expressed an aversion to a heavy-handed American role in any transition.

"We don't want the Americans involved here," said Ulises, a student, drinking rum and cola at an all-night bar.

"This system has no future, but we do not want an abrupt change, like in Iraq," he said.

Clues about what is going on behind the scenes could come from Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, leader of a new socialist wave in Latin America that sees Castro as its elder statesmen. He was due to deliver a speech later on Friday.

Chavez, who has used Venezuela's oil wealth to prop up Cuba since the collapse of its former ally the Soviet Union, might also go to Havana to visit his friend, diplomats said.

Source: REUTERS

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